A Good Week for Donald Trump; Third Party Challenger Could Help Him
Author: Greg Valliere
April 30, 2020
AFTER HITTING A LOW POINT last week, when he talked about injecting disinfectants, President Trump has bounced back — thanks to hopes for a vaccine and market-soothing comments from Jerome Powell. The main political story, however, involves Joe Biden and a third-party challenger.
BIDEN HAS BEEN CONFINED in his 6,800 square foot lakeside mansion outside of Wilmington, Del. Working from a basement studio, he has live-streamed interviews and speeches, while not addressing a sexual assault allegation that has prompted associates of the alleged victim to speak out about what she told them immediately after the alleged incident.
THE SEXUAL ASSAULT ALLEGATION probably won’t ever go away, and Trump has his own accusers, but there’s another development that has Trump happy and Democrats worried: the emergence of a third party candidate — Rep. Justin Amash (R), the near-certain Libertarian Party nominee, who could make a difference in several hotly-contested states.
AMASH VOTED FOR IMPEACHMENT, so it’s unlikely that he will win many Republican votes; Trump’s base is rock-solid. Trump actually has urged Amash to run — the president knows his base isn’t interested in the Michigan maverick, just as they were dismissive of GOP Sen. Jeff Flake — a noisy Trump critic.
BUT BERNIE SANDERS’ SUPPORTERS, many of whom will never jump on the Biden bandwagon, will listen to the libertarian arguments — especially after New York state cancelled its primary, infuriating the Sanders camp, which wants more delegates who could stiffen the party’s platform.
LIBERTARIAN CHALLENGER GARY JOHNSON won 3.3% of the vote nationwide in 2016, including 4.1% in Arizona, where a cliffhanger is likely this year (especially if Flake, an Arizonian, endorses Amash). And another challenge could come from the Green Party, which has several challengers for its nomination, including former Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura.
NEITHER AMASH NOR VENTURA are likely to win even 5% of the vote nationwide, but sometimes a third party candidate has an enormous impact. Leftist Ralph Nader won only 3.7% of the vote nationwide in 2000 but he captured 97,488 votes in Florida, a state that Al Gore lost by 537 votes.
THE BIGGER STORY THIS WEEK OBVIOUSLY is the very good news on a potential virus vaccine; findings at both Gilead and the Jenner Institute at Oxford University have encouraged Dr. Anthony Fauci and boosted hopes that a vaccine could become available by this winter, possibly even sooner.
THE GOOD NEWS CONTINUED yesterday as Powell assured reporters that the Fed is prepared to do whatever is necessary to boost the economy. Once an albatross for Trump, Powell now appears to be an asset.
THESE DEVELOPMENTS APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT to fuel the famous Trump spin, which he will update at a campaign event in Arizona next week. He will promise a vaccine and a better economy — while Biden seems trapped in his basement, now looking over his shoulder at accusers and a third-party challenger.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Asset Management (Asia) Limited (AGF AM Asia) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA is a registered advisor in the U.S. AGFI is registered as a portfolio managers across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. AGF AM Asia is registered as a portfolio manager in Singapore. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
© 2020 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.