A New Crisis for Donald Trump; Elizabeth Warren, Treasury Secretary?
Author: Greg Valliere
June 30, 2020
STILL ANOTHER RUSSIA CRISIS: We’re not sure that the Kremlin offered bounties to Taliban soldiers for killing U.S. troops, but U.S. intelligence agencies took the threat seriously and included the allegation in intelligence briefings that went to the White House. We’re also not sure Donald Trump read these briefings; he usually doesn’t.
SO, ONCE AGAIN, THE FOG OF WAR has enveloped U.S.-Russia relations. There will be more briefings, hearings, new allegations — and no clear resolution. Only one thing appears certain: this will gobble up several days, and with Trump trailing badly against Joe Biden, the president can’t afford to get dragged into still another Russia conflict.
WHAT’S TRUMP’S CAMPAIGN MESSAGE? In a shocking exchange with Sean Hannity on Fox last week, Trump couldn’t articulate a second-term agenda. He seems to be playing defense on the pandemic, the protests, race relations — and now on Russia, once again. Trump’s top aides want a re-set, with a staff shakeup and a clear agenda.
WE’VE TALKED RECENTLY with Washington insiders who are beginning to wonder whether Trump really wants a second term; he’s clearly frustrated, probably is not enjoying the job, and he surely must know that he’s the underdog (betting sites have him with less than a 40% chance of winning,).
BIDEN STILL LOOKS BEATABLE, but only if Trump can break out of his slump. The president only has four months to make a compelling case for re-election, and has little time to get bogged down on Russia, or re-tweeting racially inflammatory videos, or dismissing the pandemic. And his increasingly vocal GOP critics worry that the Senate will fall. “He must be asking himself whether he wants four more years of this,” an insider tells us.
* * * * *
ELIZABETH WARREN, TREASURY SECRETARY? We agree with the consensus that Joe Biden will pick an African-American woman (probably Kamala Harris) as his running mate. But activists within the party are making a strong push for Elizabeth Warren, asserting that she would boost turnout of progressives.
IF WARREN DOESN’T GET THE NOD, we’re hearing that she and her supporters have a fallback — Treasury Secretary. A woman has never held the post, and we’ve heard that in private Warren has made her interest clear.
THIS PROSPECT WOULD GENERATE HUGE ANXIETY in the financial markets, which she regularly blasts as greedy and corrupt. Theoretically, Biden would be warned by moderates on Wall Street that Warren is provocative, but we put her on the short list if Biden wins the election — which would raise the threat of much more aggressive oversight and regulation of the financial services industry.
* * * * *
EDITOR’S NOTE: Tomorrow is Canada Day, celebrating the formation of the Dominion in 1867. So we won’t publish; probably won’t on Friday either.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2022 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
