A Smoking Gun in Trump’s Tax Returns?
Author: Greg Valliere
September 29, 2020
SUPPOSE, TO BE CHARITABLE, that Donald Trump’s tax returns were simply the work of clever lawyers and accountants who exploited the many loopholes in the IRS code. Suppose that Trump is not a good businessman but that his losses and deductions are not illegal.
THAT STILL LEAVES A SMOKING GUN that will have to be addressed — to whom does Trump apparently owe $400 million? That was the question that had both parties buzzing in Washington yesterday.
THE NATION SURELY DOESN’T WANT TO GO THROUGH another impeachment proceeding, but we talked with sources yesterday who believe the national security risks from Trump’s loans — and the apparent concealment of those loans — are so blatant that if he wins re-election, he may have to face still another Senate trial — this time, perhaps, with a Democrat-controlled Senate.
NATIONAL SECURITY OFFICIALS would revoke the security clearance of anyone who attempted to conceal massive debts to a foreign power. These same officials, including Trump’s former National Security Director Dan Coats, have long suspected that ties between Trump and Russian oligarchs have influenced Trump’s behavior toward Vladimir Putin.
AS ONE SOURCE TOLD US YESTERDAY, “Trump’s avoidance of taxes eventually will lead to huge penalties, which happens all the time. But if his enormous debts have led him to Russia or Saudi Arabia or Turkey for emergency assistance, that would be intolerable.”
IN OUR OPINION, THE NEW YORK TIMES article was a blatant attempt to influence the election, but it makes a compelling case that Trump needs a massive infusion of cash in the coming years to avoid still another bankruptcy; most of his businesses are hemorrhaging.
PERHAPS THERE’S A GOOD EXPLANATION for the source of Trump’s loans; perhaps his ties with Deutsche Bank and other financial institutions produced financial assistance. But until there’s a thorough investigation, a suspicion will persist that Trump’s debts make him a national security risk.
* * * * *
THE STAKES TONIGHT: Huge TV ratings are expected as Trump and Biden debate tonight, with more pressure on Trump, who clearly trails with the election just five weeks away. It strikes us that Biden simply has to show good energy and avoid gaffes, and he should maintain his lead.
TRUMP WILL GO FOR THE JUGULAR, with Hunter Biden’s shady business dealings a likely target. Has Trump prepared sufficiently? Has Biden over-prepared? We’ll find out. For the financial markets, which like divided government, a decent Biden performance could revive concerns about a “Blue Wave.”
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2021 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.