Another Lost Day For Donald Trump
July 29, 2020
WE CONTINUE TO BELIEVE THE POLLS WILL NARROW — but not if President Trump has more days like yesterday. Every day is crucial as the election looms in three months, yet Trump embraced Covid-19 falsehoods and bickered with reporters, as Joe Biden held a solid press conference, showing no signs of mental slippage.
THIS MORNING’S NATIONAL AVERAGE OF POLLS on the RealClearPolitics web site shows Biden ahead by 9 points. The average of betting sites gives Biden a 61% chance of winning. Why do we think these numbers will narrow? Biden’s embrace of an expensive Big Government agenda — paid for with massive tax hikes — gives Trump an issue to exploit.
BUT TRUMP CAN’T RESIST THE BAIT, and he pouted yesterday that Dr. Anthony Fauci has better polls. “Nobody likes me. It must be my personality,” Trump said, as U.S. fatalities surged past 150,000.
THE KEY TO TRUMP’S POLITICAL WOES is his plunging ratings on the virus; less than a third of the public approves of how he has handled this crisis. Yet Trump endorsed a quack doctor yesterday who believes in aliens and promotes hydroxychloroquine. And Trump proclaimed, falsely, that large portions of the country are corona-free.
TRUMP NEEDS TO WIN MOST of the days between now and Nov. 3, but yesterday Biden helped himself. He took questions from reporters — some softballs, no Chris Wallace-class grilling — and the Vice President handled it well, with one minor gaffe (saying “Tallahassee” when he meant “Jacksonville”).
BY VIRTUALLY INSISTING THAT BIDEN IS SENILE, the Trump campaign is setting a very low bar for the debates this fall. All Biden has to do is avoid a major gaffe — and make his subjects and verbs agree — and viewers may conclude that he is fit. Biden’s agenda will become the larger issue.
FOR TRUMP, YESTERDAY SHOWED that he can’t stay on message, as he did for several days last week. He’s furious that Fauci is idolized despite some dubious calls by the doctor early in the pandemic. Ironically, both men essentially agree that a vaccine could come fairly soon; that upbeat scenario might help Trump on Nov. 3.
WE STILL THINK THE ELECTION WILL TIGHTEN, as states like Ohio and Florida probably return to the GOP fold, narrowing the Electoral College math. But each day is important, and Trump had still another bad one — as his party bickered in public over a stalled stimulus bill that will be crucial to the president’s re-election prospects.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2021 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.