Can Donald Trump Save His Presidency?
Author: Greg Valliere
June 1, 2020
WE’RE STUNNED THIS MORNING to see the extent of looting and burning in the District of Columbia — not just downtown, but in Georgetown and the leafy neighborhoods of upper Northwest. It’s like this in much of America.
BEFORE HEALING OR POLICE REFORMS CAN BEGIN, there has to be law and order; dozens of mayors from Atlanta to Chicago will have to enforce curfews and arrest thousands of young people, who will become even more radicalized.
THIS NIGHTMARE HAS TWO MAJOR IMPLICATIONS: First, the high likelihood that the coronavirus will spread; there was virtually no social distancing this weekend. As new hot spots emerge, many Americans will simply stay in their homes this summer.
SECOND, TRUMP’S OPTIONS: The president’s advisers are divided — some think he should address the nation, but others concede that he’s stiff behind a teleprompter and probably would get roasted in the press regardless of what he says.
CAN TRUMP SAVE HIS PRESIDENCY? He surely must know that he’s on the ropes, with unemployment likely surging to nearly 20% this Friday, with his toothless China policy generating yawns last Friday, with the virus potentially re-igniting, and now with urban riots.
IF THIS DOESN’T SUBSIDE SOON, Trump could lose his presidency — decisively — in November; he now trails by about 10 points, and his opponent, Joe Biden, has stepped up his game in recent days. Biden has shown empathy and leadership as Trump poured gasoline on the flames with talk of “vicious dogs” to sic on protesters.
YET THERE’S STILL A SCENARIO FOR TRUMP TO WIN: He needs the economy to come back this fall, he needs good news on a vaccine and treatment for those infected, and he needs to play the “law and order” card — which even liberal mayors will have to embrace.
TRUMP’S NARRATIVE WILL UNFOLD AS FOLLOWS: The National Guard and even the regular Army will be needed to restore order. The antifa extremists must be prosecuted. Then and only then can police reform be addressed.
TRUMP’S NARROWING ELECTORAL PATH requires a temperament that can guide the country through this unprecedented crisis. Lincoln and FDR had those skills; Trump obviously does not.
BOTTOM LINE: We think — as of now — that the Democrats are within sight of controlling the House, the Senate and the White House — a worst-case scenario for the markets.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2021 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
