A Deepening Humanitarian Crisis in the U.S.
Author: Greg Valliere
November 13, 2020
THE FOCUS INSIDE THE WASHINGTON BELTWAY is on election irregularities and Donald Trump’s next moves — but throughout the country a deepening humanitarian crisis is totally out of control, and the weary public seemingly has given up.
THE STATISTICS ARE ASTONISHING: Yesterday there were 152,391 new Covid-19 cases in the U.S. and 66,606 hospitalizations, both daily records. Fatalities now exceed 1,000 per day. The impact is greatest in Middle America, from El Paso to the Dakotas, where hospitals can’t handle the burden.
THE EUPHORIA OVER VACCINES by spring overlooks what’s happening now, as cold weather finally returns to much of the country. Fatalities are certain to surge this winter and lockdowns suddenly have returned as options. Family gatherings will increase the crisis; upcoming holidays will be “super spreaders.”
WASHINGTON SEEMINGLY IS OBLIVIOUS to this crisis. Donald Trump still insists he won, he’s in a bitter feud with Fox News, and he’s about to fire more officials who were not sufficiently loyal to him. Incredibly, he’s plotting another run for the presidency in 2024, even as his White House is now crippled by the virus.
WE EXPECT THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION will impose strict mask-wearing standards and social distancing regulations, but that would come after the Jan. 20 inauguration. In the meantime, a pandemic relief bill is urgently needed.
STEVE MNUCHIN STILL WANTS A DEAL, but the key antagonists — Nancy Pelosi and Mitch McConnell — continue to talk past each other. She couldn’t take “yes” for an answer before the election, when she could have gotten $1.8 trillion. Yesterday Pelosi repeated her demand for at least $2 trillion, while McConnell’s Senate Republicans don’t want much more than $500 billion. The impasse persists.
WE STILL BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A BILL, but it’s impossible to accurately predict when it will get done. It may come in December, or after the Jan. 5 Georgia runoffs, or it may not come until just after Biden’s inauguration. He’s eager to “go big,” sources predict.
THE ECONOMY HAS BEEN A PLEASANT SURPRISE in recent months, but the staggering acceleration of Covid-19 cases surely will drive people indoors and away from shopping malls, restaurants and airplanes for most of the winter. The spring looks promising — but that’s five months away.
WE USUALLY SEE THE GLASS AS HALF FULL, but this crisis still hasn’t peaked in much of middle America. Countless small cities lack the resources to cope with the virus. This requires an aggressive response from Washington, but this city is still debating the election outcome and Trump’s next moves — not this deepening humanitarian crisis.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2020 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.