Degree of Difficulty Will Ramp Up for Joe Biden This Week
Author: Greg Valliere
February 22, 2021
IT DOESN’T GET ANY EASIER: With his polls on handling Covid now slipping, President Biden faces a challenging week — as a key Democrat wavers and Donald Trump plans to re-emerge with a broadside on illegal immigration.
THIS DIFFICULT STRETCH for Biden actually began over the weekend, when West Virginia moderate Democrat Joe Manchin announced he would not support Biden’s nominee to become Director of the Office of Management and Budget (she’s too partisan, he said). The message was clear: Manchin will be an irritant for the entire Biden presidency.
AFTER SOLEMN REMEMBRANCES today for the half million people killed by Covid-19, Biden will almost certainly have to visit Texas, where there’s still a crisis over water supplies. Then Biden will spend most of the week defending his very expensive Covid relief bill — which has played a role in the dramatic rise in bond yields, which continues this morning.
THE REPUBLICAN ARGUMENT against the bill is summarized in a Wall Street Journal editorial this morning which claims that about $1 trillion of the $1.9 trillion Covid bill is a pork-filled blowout. The measure has solid public support and should pass, very narrowly, in the House by week’s end — but the Senate will be a tough slog next week.
NOT ONLY MANCHIN but Arizona moderate Krysten Sinema could vote against the measure if it contains a minimum wage hike. Biden may have to trim back this massive bill to something a little less than $1.9 trillion; Manchin will call the shots.
THE BIGGEST POLITICAL STORY of the week will come next Sunday, when Trump will re-emerge from Mar-a-Lago, speaking at the Conservative Political Action Committee’s annual conference. Insiders expect Trump to bash Biden over illegal immigration, which is surging at the Texas border and could become an albatross for the new president — and a dominant issue, once again, for Trump.
MEANWHILE, BIDEN’S POLLING NUMBERS on his handling of Covid have slipped a bit. His confusing policy on opening schools has only 42% support in a new Fox poll, and grumbling is rising in most states over the shortage of vaccines.
BIDEN’S OVERALL JOB RATING is solid, a little over 50% positive, but he needs a dramatic win on the Covid bill in the next two weeks. He may not get a single GOP vote for it in either the House or the Senate, as partisanism ramps up this week in Washington — and as anxiety grows in the fixed income markets over the size of his relief bill.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2022 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
