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Establishment Politicians are in Retreat

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Establishment Politicians are in Retreat

Author: Greg Valliere

February 8, 2022

ESTABLISHMENT POLITICIANS are in retreat, from Ottawa to London to California, as a populist uprising threatens to spin out of control over vaccine and mask mandates that will have to end soon.

IRONICALLY, POLITICIANS were about to lift mandates throughout the U.S. this month as Covid cases diminish rapidly, but now a perception will grow that angry protests have succeeded. What’s next? An uprising over inflation?

AT THE CENTER of this rebellion are tone-deaf politicians, many of whom were photographed in the past week without masks — in states where their own mandates required them. Among the hypocrites: Democrat Stacey Abrams, maskless in Georgia, Mayor Eric Adams, maskless in NYC, and the maskless Californians — Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti (D), San Francisco Mayor London Breed (D) and Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), a repeat offender.

WITH NEW COVID CASES DOWN BY 42% in the past week, several states — Connecticut, Delaware, New Jersey and Oregon — on Monday announced plans to drop mask mandates. Other states are expected to allow school districts to make decisions; the new mantra is “we have to live with it.”

THE NEW HOT-SPOT is the charming city of Ottawa, where government authorities will either have to crack down or capitulate. We’d guess that a final agreement between protestors and the flailing Trudeau administration will include a timetable for easing mask and vaccine mandates.

WITH MANDATES LIKELY TO DISAPPEAR as a dominant issue by early spring, what’s next? We think there will be a growing backlash against gasoline, food and other prices because wages are not rising as fast as inflation.

ON INFLATION ALSO, THERE’S A DISCONNECT between the establishment and workers. A candidate for the Tone-Deaf Hall of Fame is Bank of England Gov. Andrew Bailey, who says British workers should not ask for a pay raise this year. Bailey earns about £575,000 ($777,115) — 18 times the U.K. average for a full-time employee.

AN IMPORTANT DISTINCTION: The anti-mandate protesters have succeeded (see: Glenn Youngkin in Virginia) but anger over inflation probably won’t change any specific policies. Instead, there may be a gradual return to work by millions who have dropped out of the labor market but have now depleted their savings and federal benefits, which aren’t keeping pace with inflation.

THE ANTI-MANDATE movement has been loud, and the intense anger may not be shared by the majority of voters. But politicians from Joe Biden to Boris Johnson to Justin Trudeau have to worry that “Something is happening, and you don’t know what it is,” as Bob Dylan warned in the early ’60s.


The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.

About AGF Management Limited

Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.

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©2023 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

Written by

Greg Valliere

Greg Valliere

Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

AGF Investments

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