AGF Logo
  • Home
  • Industry and Expert Views
  • Investing and Market Views
  • Capitol Insights
  • Français
  • AGF.com
Skip to content
AGF logo
Insights and Market Perspectives
  • Industry and Expert Views
  • Investing and Market Views
  • Capitol Insights
  • Contributors
  • Français
  • Search
Search
Close
Huge News Week Ahead: Virginia, Infrastructure Deal, FOMC, Glasgow

  • Industry and Expert Views

For Print Only Logo
Insights and Market Perspectives

Huge News Week Ahead: Virginia, Infrastructure Deal, FOMC, Glasgow

Author: Greg Valliere

November 1, 2021

Huge News Week Ahead:
Virginia, Infrastructure Deal, FOMC, Glasgow
November 1, 2021
LET’S START WITH VIRGINIA: Democrats are in danger of losing tomorrow in a major upset, as challenger Glenn Youngkin rides the education issue to a likely victory over former Gov. Terry McAuliffe. Control of what kids are taught is a huge issue, and McAuliffe didn’t see it coming.

AS DEMOCRATS FOUGHT ENDLESSLY over an infrastructure deal, their polls plummeted on issues such as inflation, crime and immigration. Joe Biden’s polls crashed after the inept Afghanistan pullout; they may inch higher after his Europe trip, but the damage has been done. The Virginia results will speak volumes.

EVEN A CLOSE WIN in Virginia should scare the Democrats, who are likely to lose the House — and perhaps the Senate as well — next fall. Time to pass legislation is dwindling, which puts enormous pressure on party leaders to wrap up the two infrastructure bills quickly.
* * * * *
A DEAL IS CLOSE: After all the drama in October, we now think an agreement on infrastructure taxes and spending is possible within a week. There are still unresolved issues — drug pricing, paid leave and immigration — but the Democrats’ warring factions are out of gas. They want a deal.

ONCE THE HUGE INFRASTRUCTURE AND SOCIAL SPENDING BILLS ARE PASSED, there will be a re-assessment of how much stimulus the economy will enjoy in 2022. It will be plenty to fund a solid recovery. What about a withering battle on the debt ceiling a month from now? We’re hearing that the deadline may slip until early 2022.
* * * * *
THE BIGGEST STORY FOR THE MARKETS this week is the Tuesday-Wednesday FOMC meeting, where officials are expected to announce details of their tapering of asset purchases; terrible inflation data last Friday sealed the deal. We expect Chairman Jerome Powell to agree to a fast pace of tapering, which will be completed by summer, opening the door for rate hikes to begin by next fall.

POWELL IS THE SHAKY FAVORITE to retain his job; we expect an announcement in the next week. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to surge on Friday and higher prices are scaring consumers, so Biden might need an inflation scapegoat. Firing Powell is still an option but we put odds at 60-40 that he will be retained.
* * * * *
OFF TO A GOOD START: Exceeding low expectations, Biden gets good grades thus far for his European visit, at least on style points. World leaders obviously are more comfortable with him than Donald Trump, and a lifting of steel and aluminum tariffs were a relief. Biden’s visit with the Pope might raise his shaky poll numbers by a point or two.

BUT MEETING LOW EXPECTATIONS in Glasgow will be difficult. The anti-coal sentiment will persist, but it will be hard to enforce policies to keep global temperatures from rising by only 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of this century. The key will be pledges of money for less developed countries; Biden can offer assurances of billions in the infrastructure bill that should pass soon.

PROGRESS ON CLIMATE CHANGE will come gradually — the private sector will be crucial — but this meeting hardly will be a panacea, not with the indifference from Russia and China. Changes will come incrementally and slowly — with a sense of urgency growing after more horrific fires and floods.


The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.

About AGF Management Limited

Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.

For further information, please visit AGF.com.

©2023 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

Written by

Greg Valliere

Greg Valliere

Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

AGF Investments

Also Read

  • Investing and Market Views

Why Some Market Participants Are Worried About “Zero Day to Expiry” Options Trading

March 16, 2023

  • Investing and Market Views

What The Collapse of Two U.S. Banks Could Mean for Markets

March 14, 2023

  • Investing and Market Views

Why It’s Too Early to Claim Victory Over Inflation – Or Recession Concerns

March 9, 2023

  • Investing and Market Views

Seeking Balance Following Market Extremes

March 9, 2023

Get perspectives straight to your inbox.

Subscribe now

More articles like this

Greg Valliere, Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

  • Industry and Expert Views

Joe Biden Finally Gets to Canada — What’s on the Agenda?

Greg Valliere | March 24, 2023

Timely insights from inside Washington.

Read More
Greg Valliere, Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

  • Industry and Expert Views

Everywhere You Look, Confidence is Plunging

Greg Valliere | March 23, 2023

Timely insights from inside Washington.

Read More
Greg Valliere, Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

  • Industry and Expert Views

Vladimir Putin’s Summit Was a Dud

Greg Valliere | March 22, 2023

Timely insights from inside Washington.

Read More
AGF Logo
  • Industry and Expert Views
  • Investing and Market Views
  • Capitol Insights
Follow AGF

AGF Web Site Pages © 2023 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

  • Terms & Conditions
  • Privacy
  • AGF.com