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The Progressive Movement Hits the Wall

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The Progressive Movement Hits the Wall

Author: Greg Valliere

June 8, 2022

SOMETIMES A SINGLE EVENT can become the metaphor for a major trend, and that surely was the take-away last night, as the very liberal district attorney in San Francisco was recalled in a near-landslide. The trend, clearly, is that the progressive movement has become a toxic brand in American politics.

THIS IS NOT TO SAY that the country is about to embrace a Trumpian revival; the former president’s mixed record in primaries this spring is a sign that he’s losing altitude — and suddenly Trump could become eclipsed by conservative Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as Republicans seek someone more palatable than Trump.

THE DEMOCRATS ARE STILL SUFFERING from an enormous self-inflicted wound: their embrace of the progressive agenda, which has backfired spectacularly. Some examples:

* Defund the police: The election of ex-cop Eric Adams as New York City mayor should have sent a message to the party: “defund the police” is a concept that has seriously backfired. To be fair, Biden and most mainstream Democrats never supported the concept, but many failed to speak out against it until crime became a dominant issue.

* A wealth tax: Bernie Sanders and left wing Democrats have called for a de facto wealth tax, which they cannot sell to the public, which views the concept as confiscatory.

* Medicare for all: The only way Democrats can prevail on health benefits is through incremental provisions. A dramatic Medicare expansion simply doesn’t have the votes in Congress.

* Massive student loan relief: Sanders and Elizabeth Warren want virtual loan forgiveness for middle and lower class debtors, but that would infuriate millions of Americans who paid off all of their loans. Even the modest loan forgiveness under consideration by Biden could be controversial.

* Packing the Supreme Court: This idea captivated the left a couple of years ago, but Biden realized that it would backfire spectacularly, as it did on Franklin Roosevelt in 1937.

* Ending the filibuster: This was going to be the secret sauce, a move that would allow passage of progressive legislation. But Joe Manchin and a handful of other Democrats won’t let it happen.

* The spending binge: The U.S. added nearly $6 trillion in new spending last year for Covid relief and infrastructure, and proponents want more. The public is convinced that this has ignited inflation.

* Energy: The progressive mantra against fossil fuels has clearly backfired, as Americans seek to blame something for $6 per gallon gasoline.

* Social issues: *Republican Glenn Youngkin’s victory in the Virginia gubernatorial race last fall sent a clear message that schools should have limits on what they teach. The result of that election shocked progressives, which was a warning signal that they were out of touch.

THE PROGRESSIVE IDEAS SIMPLY DON’T GENERATE ENOUGH VOTES, yet mainstream Democrats have to worry that Sen. Warren could unify the left and win the nomination in a crowded field in 2024 if Joe Biden doesn’t run. Warren is too polarizing to win a general election, in our opinion.

THE U.S. IS A CENTER-RIGHT COUNTRY, which was confirmed once again last night in San Francisco, where even liberals had enough of the progressive agenda. Will the party — and the reeling president — get the message?


The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.

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Written by

Greg Valliere

Greg Valliere

Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

AGF Investments

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