AGF Logo
  • Home
  • Industry and Expert Views
  • Investing and Market Views
  • Capitol Insights
  • Français
  • AGF.com
Skip to content
AGF logo
Insights and Market Perspectives
  • Industry and Expert Views
  • Investing and Market Views
  • Capitol Insights
  • Contributors
  • Français
  • Search
Search
Close
Thinking About the Unthinkable — A Nuclear Miscalculation

  • Industry and Expert Views

For Print Only Logo
Insights and Market Perspectives

Thinking About the Unthinkable — A Nuclear Miscalculation

Author: Greg Valliere

January 28, 2022

MILITARY EXPERTS HAVE BEEN RELUCTANT to even whisper about the unthinkable in Ukraine, but there’s growing anxiety over a Russian incursion that prompts a miscalculation. Could the Russians use one of their thousands of nuclear weapons?

THE THREAT OF A GROSS MISCALCULATION has alarmed experts in recent days, and those concerns are now out in the open. This morning’s Politico, in a chilling article, quotes many of these officials, who worry about what one experts calls “the law of unintended consequences.”

THE HIGHLY REGARDED Federation of American Scientists estimates that Russia possesses approximately 6,400 nuclear warheads, the largest stockpile in the world. The U.S. has about 6,000 and Russia also has vast supplies of chemical and biological weapons.

“IF YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT a nuclear-armed environment, which is already fragile, then you are living in an environment [where] things could escalate quite quickly, by accident or miscalculation,” said former UK defense chief Des Browne in the Politico article.

“NOBODY THINKS any of these weapons are going to be used deliberately, but miscalculation is a significant chance,” added Browne, who chairs the Euro-Atlantic Security Leadership Group.

POLITICO QUOTES A FORMER GOP GOVERNMENT OFFICIAL who still works on nuclear security issues: “The Russians have something like 4,000 tactical nuclear weapons and they have an ‘escalate to win’ nuclear doctrine, which says ‘we use nuclear weapons first if a conventional conflict starts to spin out of our favor.’”

ONE RUSSIAN DIPLOMAT last month went so far as to publicly threaten the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in the crisis. These weapons have a lower “yield” than traditional atomic bombs and are designed to be used against conventional forces in battle.

ACCORDING TO FORMER U.S. AMBASSADOR Richard Burt, who has negotiated arms control treaties with the Soviet Union, “people are worried about the possibility, through some process of escalation — that somehow gets out of control, misreading, misunderstanding signals, or technical mistakes — [and] that nuclear weapons in one form or another could become a factor in this crisis,” Burt told Politico.

ANOTHER HUGE CONCERN is that Russian cyberwarfare could scramble signals, according to Chris Painter, a former top government cyber official. He warned this week of the risk of a nuclear escalation caused by a cyber attack impacting nuclear forces.

“WE KNOW that Russia and other services are intent on intruding into U.S. systems,” he told an event hosted by the nonprofit Nuclear Threat Initiative. “Obviously, nuclear command and control would be a target they’d want to go after and get a foothold in. This is a really dangerous thing … if those systems are seen to be unreliable … that does have a real effect on deterrence. It’s hugely escalatory.”

WE CONTINUE TO BELIEVE that a diplomatic “off ramp,” is likely — with plenty of carrots and sticks for Putin — that will resolve this without an all-out war. But the mere fact that leading experts are talking about a nuclear miscalculation makes this the greatest global threat since the Cuban missile crisis in 1962.


The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.

About AGF Management Limited

Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.

For further information, please visit AGF.com.

©2023 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

Written by

Greg Valliere

Greg Valliere

Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

AGF Investments

Also Read

  • Investing and Market Views

Downshifting Equities to Neutral

January 17, 2023

  • Investing and Market Views

An Alternative(s) Take on the New Year

January 13, 2023

  • Investing and Market Views

Yes, Markets Are Oversold. But Investors Still Need to Be Cautious

November 24, 2022

  • Investing and Market Views

Are Investors Through the Worst of It Yet?

November 16, 2022

Get perspectives straight to your inbox.

Subscribe now

More articles like this

Greg Valliere, Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

  • Industry and Expert Views

The Next Big Scandal; Plus, Strong GDP Report Would Be a Fake-Out

Greg Valliere | January 26, 2023

Timely insights from inside Washington.

Read More
Greg Valliere, Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

  • Industry and Expert Views

Republicans Flirt With a Very Risky Issue: Cutting Social Security

Greg Valliere | January 25, 2023

Timely insights from inside Washington.

Read More
Greg Valliere, Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

  • Industry and Expert Views

Fast-forward to Summer: Avoiding Default, a Very Close Call

Greg Valliere | January 24, 2023

Timely insights from inside Washington.

Read More
AGF Logo
  • Industry and Expert Views
  • Investing and Market Views
  • Capitol Insights
Follow AGF

AGF Web Site Pages © 2023 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

  • Terms & Conditions
  • Privacy
  • AGF.com