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This Morning’s Weird Jobs Report

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Insights and Market Perspectives

This Morning’s Weird Jobs Report

Author: Greg Valliere

October 8, 2021

This Morning’s Weird Jobs Report
October 8, 2021
THIS MORNING’S WEIRD DATA had something for everyone, leading us to conclude that the sample last month did not accurately reflect a return to work among individuals whose benefits ended in September. That return will continue — slowly — for the next few months.

Our take is that the unemployment report had four distinct audiences — with four distinct reactions:

Republicans will argue that economic growth is slowing and inflation is still a huge threat; rising prices will be a key element of their 2022 election argument.

Democrats will point to the falling unemployment rate and signs of solid wage gains, but they will insist on more stimulus.

The Federal Reserve has to consider that the jobless rate is now entering “full employment” territory, with accompanying inflationary fears. The Fed’s late-year tapering plans probably haven’t been affected by this confusing new data.

The financial markets may dismiss the entire report as deeply flawed. With the debt ceiling off the front pages for a few weeks, the markets can now focus on earnings.

AS THIS TUMULTUOUS WEEK ends in Washington, a major political story looms: the dramatic return of Donald Trump to the campaign trail, with a major rally planned for this weekend in Iowa.

TRUMP HAS INTIMIDATED the vast majority of Republican politicians, and the policy impact, unfortunately, is clear: more dysfunction by late November on keeping the government open while grappling with still another messy debt ceiling debate as the holidays approach.
* * * * * *
SPEAKING OF HOLIDAYS, a happy Thanksgiving to all of our friends in Canada, who will be celebrating on Monday. We’ll be back on Tuesday morning.


The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.

About AGF Management Limited

Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.

For further information, please visit AGF.com.

©2023 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

Written by

Greg Valliere

Greg Valliere

Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

AGF Investments

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