Ukraine Can Win the Next Round
Author: Greg Valliere
April 8, 2022
RUSSIAN SUPPLY LINES — MOSCOW’S MAJOR WEAKNESS: There were many reasons why the Russian assault on Kyiv failed — the difference in troop morale was huge — but a major factor was the inept supply lines, which were sitting ducks for Ukrainian air strikes. Now there’s another key factor.
WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE PUBLICITY, Ukraine launched a major offensive in late March against Russian navy ships docked at the port in Berdyansk on the Azov Sea, the Wall Street Journal reported earlier this week. It was the first major strike on the Russian fleet, Ukrainian and U.S. officials said. The attack destroyed a ship laden with supplies, drove others back into the sea, and damaged the port facilities.
EVEN IF RUSSIAN TROOPS find a way to enter eastern Ukraine, there’s no guarantee that they will prevail in ground fighting. Western countries, including the U.S., are flooding the region with sophisticated weapons.
THE SAVVY WASHINGTON POST COLUMNIST David Ignatius says this morning that the U.S.is rushing new weapons to Ukraine that include advanced drones, laser-guided rocket systems and light-armored vehicles.
THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM is that this second round could last for months, with each side facing grave consequences: much of eastern Ukraine will be in ruins, and the Russian economy is facing a deep depression and staggering casualties — its troop fatalities may be over 10,000, with three times that number wounded or captured.
THE RUSSIANS WILL HAVE MORE TROOPS in this second round, but the Ukrainians know how to destroy Russian supply lines, and they have enormous public support that has been reinforced by proof of the indiscriminate slaughter of their people.
PUTIN’S JOB APPROVAL RATINGS ARE HIGH in rural Russia, but the truth about this war will eventually emerge as the educated elite, now scattered around Europe, call home with details of what has happened. And there will be growing anger from the families of the thousands of Russian war dead.
BOTTOM LINE: Russia cannot win this war; even if some eastern Ukrainian cities fall, a fierce guerrilla resistance will persist. A protracted stalemate is the best case scenario for Putin, who eventually will have to accept a deal. His worst case scenario is the prospect of another humiliating defeat on the battlefield — and his ouster by generals who have had enough of supply shortages and inept strategy.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2023 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.