Washington Focuses on the Wrong Crisis
Author: Greg Valliere
June 10, 2022
VOTERS WILL INCREASINGLY ASK: Is Washington more interested in these hearings than $6 per gallon gasoline? Prices could actually rise further in coming weeks as crude oil prices climb.
INTERVIEWS WITH ANGRY AMERICANS frequently elicit comments that gasoline prices weren’t remotely this high under Trump. While the ex-president is not personally popular, most people simply aren’t interested in re-litigating the complicated Jan. 6 narrative.
WE TALKED THIS WEEK with mainstream Washington Republicans, generally anti-Trump, who think they have a “two-fer” — first, voters have gotten another reminder of the enormous baggage Trump carries because of Jan. 6; second, hearings for the rest of this month will look like overkill by the Democrats. What voters want is action on inflation, but none is forthcoming.
WITH A WAR RAGING IN UKRAINE, elevated prices are likely to persist well into the fall for food, energy, raw materials, etc. The markets care far more about this morning’s inflation data than the congressional theater.
SO OUR CONCLUSION AFTER THE FIRST DAY of hearings is that they probably won’t move the needle for this November’s elections. As this week began, the Democrats were likely to lose the House and possibly the Senate, and as the week ends that outcome looks just as likely.
THE REPUBLICANS HAVE A POTENT list of issues to exploit — gasoline, urban violence, illegal immigration, Hunter Biden, etc. — so the hearings may not make much of a dent. For Trump, however, his loss of altitude persists as most Republicans in this city conclude — privately — that he’s more trouble than he’s worth. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis continues to create a buzz.
BOTTOM LINE: These hearings probably will generate bombshells but they also may generate low ratings from a public that is deeply anxious over runaway inflation and the impact on their finances — as still higher gasoline prices loom this summer. A GOP landslide is likely in November; the hearings won’t change that conclusion.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2023 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.