Could the Republicans Lose the Senate in 2020?
Author: Greg Valliere
August 30, 2019
ALL THE FOCUS ON U.S. POLITICS has been on the 2020 presidential race, but there’s been a little movement in the Senate this summer, giving Democrats some hope that they could regain control. Our bottom line: flipping the Senate is not out of the question, but the numbers still look good for the Republicans, as we explain below.
THE MATH: Republicans control the Senate by 53-47 and they have 23 seats up for re-election, compared to 12 for the Democrats. But there’s a very likely GOP pickup coming in Alabama, which means the Democrats would need a net gain of four seats to take the Senate (or five, if Donald Trump wins re-election, which would allow Republicans to maintain de facto control).
OBVIOUSLY THE PRESIDENTIAL RACE will have a huge impact on Senate contests; if Trump wins easily, the Senate almost certainly would stay Republican, and if he loses badly, the Democrats should capture the Senate. The most probable outcome — a very close presidential race — would most likely maintain the Republicans’ narrow majority.
WHAT’S CHANGED? The decision by John Hickenlooper to drop out of the presidential race and run for the Senate in Colorado puts that state’s incumbent GOP Sen. Cory Gardner on the vulnerable list. But we don’t think the other big change — a vacancy in Georgia, where Johnny Isakson (R) is retiring — makes the Democrats the favorites to win either of the two seats that are up for re-election there.
OUR FRIEND CHARLIE COOK, the best handicapper in the business, has three tossup Republican seats — Gardner in Colorado, Martha McSally in Arizona, and Susan Collins in Maine (we think the latter is the slight favorite). And Charlie has one pickup for the Republicans — the seat in Alabama, where Doug Jonesi (D) has an uphill battle. A net pickup of just one or two seats for the Democrats wouldn’t be enough; they would need an upset or two, perhaps in North Carolina or Iowa.
WHY THE SENATE ELECTION IS SO IMPORTANT: If the Republicans keep the Senate, there would be a powerful firewall — with Mitch McConnell calling the shots — even if a Democrat wins the White House. Any radical legislation — big tax hikes, Medicare for all, the Green New Deal, etc. — would die. And the rightward shift of the judiciary, with likely changes in the Supreme Court, would continue.
BOTTOM LINE: There’s a long way to go, and the Democrats are clear favorites to retain the House. But the numbers don’t quite add up for the GOP in the Senate, where there’s another enormously important number — 60, the number of votes needed to end filibusters. So even if the Democrats narrowly take the Senate, they still would be thwarted on virtually all issues, because McConnell and the GOP would filibuster endlessly.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2022 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
