Donald Trump Heads for Victories, Despite Michael Cohen
Author: Greg Valliere
February 27, 2019
MICHAEL COHEN WON’T MATTER MUCH: All the juicy stuff has been leaked; the real excitement will come during Q&A. Our litmus test for most everything in Washington is whether it will affect the markets — and our sense is that the Cohen circus will have virtually no impact.
TODAY’S HEARING WON’T HAVE A BIG IMPACT politically, because the activists on both sides are dug in; nothing will change their views of him. And the hearing won’t have much of an impact on Robert Mueller, who has already interrogated Cohen for hours. As for the markets, a skirmish between Pakistan and India had a bigger impact yesterday, and of course there was dovish testimony from Jay Powell.
ACTUALLY, THE BIGGEST THREAT to Trump will come as Cohen describes hush payments to Stormy Daniels — a clear violation of campaign laws, according to most experts, but does lying about sex meet the impeachment standard of high crimes and misdemeanors? It didn’t for Bill Clinton.
HERE’S WHERE COHEN COULD HAVE AN IMPACT: Trump has had a rocky winter, and he desperately needs a victory. Many of his advisers worry that Trump will be too eager to cut a deal with Kim Jong-un, but no one can spin like Trump, who will portray the Vietnam summit as a great victory, whether it is or not.
A CHINA PACT IS MORE IMPORTANT: It’s increasingly clear that Trump will take virtually any deal with China. Trump’s trade hawks are dismayed by what’s shaping up as a modest deal, with vague promises on compliance. Today’s New York Times reports on the increasing frustration from top trade negotiator Robert Lighthizer, who may be sensing that a deal will be toothless.
FOR THE MARKETS, the big story is that a protracted trade war is unlikely, removing still another economic uncertainty. And that’s what Trump wants — happy markets heading into his re-election campaign.
SO EXCUSE OUR CYNICISM, but the Cohen testimony means little. Watching it may be a guilty pleasure today, but Trump will get something from North Korea and, eventually, an enormous public relations victory as a China trade deal is signed at Mar-a-Lago. And he will win a veto fight, upholding his declaration of a national emergency over the border.
THE BIGGER POLITICAL STORY is the Democrats’ sharp veer to the left on taxes, the Green New Deal, and now the embrace by some candidates of reparations for slavery and the treatment of Native Americans. Thanks to these gift-wrapped foils, Trump still has a plausible path to winning 270 electoral votes, barely.
The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), Highstreet Asset Management Inc. (Highstreet), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Asset Management (Asia) Limited (AGF AM Asia) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA is a registered advisor in the U.S. AGFI and Highstreet are registered as portfolio managers across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. AGF AM Asia is registered as a portfolio manager in Singapore. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
© 2019 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
