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Donald Trump Knows the Power of Incumbency

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Donald Trump Knows the Power of Incumbency

Author: Greg Valliere

September 17, 2020

IT’S HIS STAGE: From the virus to Israel, from a fresh demand on stimulus spending to the re-start of Big Ten football, Donald Trump owns the stage.

TRUMP STUNNED INSIDERS with the scope of his comments yesterday, which dominated the news cycle. Four examples:

1. Stimulus spending: Trump caught Senate Republicans off-guard with his demand that they go for “much higher” outlays — perhaps along the lines of a $1.5 trillion compromise advocated by centrist House “Problem Solvers” who are getting heat from constituents who want a generous pandemic aid bill.

This threw a life preserver to Nancy Pelosi, who’s eager to drag Trump and Steve Mnuchin into talks that could produce a big spending bill. And it will allow her to portray the Senate GOP as heartless for proposing a much more modest bill. The stimulus talks may be back on track; Trump wants a bill.

2. Mocking the head of the CDC: Trump said Dr. Robert Redfield must have been “confused” when he praised wearing masks and said vaccines may not be readily available until well into 2021. Trump wants them by the Nov. 3 election. Redfield backed down a bit later in the day, but his reputation is now shot and there’s more proof that Trump has politicized the virus and has little use for his scientists.

3. Mideast peace: Only a bold president could pull this one off — Trump has prompted speculation that more pacts are coming after Israel signed agreements with the UAE and Bahrain in a celebratory photo-op at the White House. Iran and Hezbollah are the clear losers as a new Mideast coalition takes shape; could closer ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia be next?

4. Big Ten football: “It’s my great honor to have helped,” Trump tweeted as the conference decided to resume football games later this fall. This is a big deal in states like Ohio, which venerates its Buckeyes. One Big Ten athletic director said that Trump “had noting to do with our decision” — but Trump took credit anyway.

BOTTOM LINE: Trump is a whirling dervish, a born showman, setting the debate. He’s a bull in a china shop, while Joe Biden can hardly be described as dynamic. We’ve said all summer that people who underestimate Trump do so at their own peril, and his audacious performance yesterday proves that.

TRUMP OWNS THE STAGE: What’s next? He may block the Tik-Tok deal, or he may launch an offensive on Biden’s dealings in Ukraine, or he may ratchet up the trade war with Europe. The incumbent makes the news, and the low-keyed Biden seems content to play defense — as his lead in the RealClearPolitics aggregate of all polls slips to 5.9%.


The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.

About AGF Management Limited

Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.

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©2022 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

Written by

Greg Valliere

Greg Valliere

Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

AGF Investments

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