Donald Trump, the Populist Outsider
Author: Greg Valliere
August 28, 2020
DESPITE BEING PRESIDENT for three and a half years, Donald Trump portrayed himself as a populist outsider last night, fighting against the establishment and describing how terrible things are in American cities. Neat trick — he’s the president!!
WE HAVE LONG ARGUED that you underestimate Trump at your own peril. He goes after opponents mercilessly and is a very clever political strategist and marketer. The idea that he could sound like a populist outsider last night was astonishing.
TRUMP BASHED DRUG COMPANIES, boasted that troops are coming home, said he’d fight for good jobs, and ripped into China. Bernie Sanders could have said the same things.
BUT WHAT TRUMP DID NOT DO was offer a clear vision of his agenda for the next four years. As we wrote yesterday, that’s crucial, but Trump was vague — build more of the wall, land a woman on the moon, produce more energy, and of course cut taxes further.
SO — WILL HE GET A BOUNCE? Probably, maybe two or three points, as some viewers agree that U.S. streets aren’t safe. We thought last week that the Democrats had to address urban violence, not just police misconduct, but they didn’t and that was a mistake.
OUR GUESS IS THAT POLLS THIS WEEKEND will show Biden with a lead of 5 or 6 points — but his bigger concern is that the race has narrowed in key battleground states.
THE THREE DOMINANT ISSUES ARE CLEAR —
1. Continued urban unrest, an issue Trump and his aides will exploit ruthlessly.
2. The state of the economy, which may falter if there’s no stimulus bill (talks between Nancy Pelosi and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows failed yesterday).
3. And perhaps most importantly, how the public views Trump’s handling of the virus. He thinks he has done a tremendous job but statistics don’t lie — the U.S. has about 4.3% of the world’s population, and about 23% of the fatalities.
BIDEN NEEDS TO KICK INTO ANOTHER GEAR, ASAP: The Democrats were cocky in July, talking about an electoral landslide. Now they may see a race that’s nearly tied by the first debate, on Sept. 29. Trump has a huge war chest and is the populist outsider, a good place to be as the real campaign now begins.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Asset Management (Asia) Limited (AGF AM Asia) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA is a registered advisor in the U.S. AGFI is registered as a portfolio managers across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. AGF AM Asia is registered as a portfolio manager in Singapore. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
© 2020 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
