Donald Trump vs. Anthony Fauci
Author: Greg Valliere
May 12, 2020
THIS COUNTRY IS BITTERLY DIVIDED on most issues, including the Big One — the public is wary, hardly convinced that the coronavirus has been subdued, but President Trump wants “warriors” to open up the country. And today the public will get a very cautious message from Dr. Anthony Fauci.
EXPECT A MEDIA FRENZY as Fauci tells a Senate committee later this morning that if the country opens up too quickly, there will be “needless suffering and death.” Fauci enjoys phenomenal polls; he’s widely respected — and he will tell the country to go very slowly. At the least, his testimony will be an implicit repudiation of Trump.
MOST SURVEYS SHOW 60 to 70 percent of Americans are worried that the country is re-opening too soon. But the media has focused on perhaps a quarter of the country — egged on by raucous protesters who say their rights are being violated; they want to return to jobs, beaches and restaurants. The majority of Americans are leery.
NOT SURPRISINGLY, THIS HAS BECOME POLITICIZED: Trump said over the weekend that the state of Pennsylvania was going slow on re-opening because the state’s Democratic governor wants to hurt the president’s re-election prospects. So Trump probably will conclude today that Fauci also wants to hurt his re-election prospects.
BUT THE DESIRE TO OPEN UP is growing, even though new infections and deaths have not leveled off in many parts of the country, such as the Washington DC metropolitan area. Even in conservative rural states the virus still rages, and people are uneasy.
IF YOU WANT A V-SHAPED RECOVERY, you have to accept a premise that the public will continue to embrace social distancing and other precautions, with the economy picking up, thanks in large part to massive stimulus from Congress and the Fed.
BUT NEW STIMULUS from Congress is gridlocked and could remain stalled for at least another two months. Everyone has issues with parts of the next stimulus bill, but without more aid cities could face bankruptcy, prolonging this deep recession. So a bill will pass, eventually.
THE BATTLE LINES ARE DRAWN: President Trump wants “warriors” to end the lockdown — but those pesky scientists, they want to move very slowly, because they know what looms: a second wave, or perhaps a continuation of the first wave as clusters of new infections erupt around the country, with fatalities surging past 100,000 by June.
FACUI CAN WARN AND PLEAD, but the country will open up. We think, therefore, that the key is all of us — will we keep our distance, wear masks, refrain from shaking hands, and sanitize constantly? Fauci will implore us today to adhere to those practices, because he knows the virus won’t be contained until a vaccine is available, hopefully by winter.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2021 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
