AGF Logo
  • Home
  • Industry and Expert Views
  • Investing and Market Views
  • Capitol Insights
  • Français
  • AGF.com
Skip to content
AGF logo
Insights and Market Perspectives
  • Industry and Expert Views
  • Investing and Market Views
  • Capitol Insights
  • Contributors
  • Français
  • Search
Search
Close
Donald Trump’s Opportunity Tonight

  • Industry and Expert Views

For Print Only Logo
Insights and Market Perspectives

Donald Trump’s Opportunity Tonight

Author: Greg Valliere

August 27, 2020

POLITICAL CONVENTIONS ARE SUPPOSED to fire up the base, praise the nominee, demonize the opposition and play fast and loose with the truth. That’s to be expected. But on the final night, voters want to know if there’s a plan for the next four years.

THE DEMOCRATS WERE MORE CONCERNED about how Joe Biden would perform, and he passed that test. But he didn’t offer much of a plan. Now there’s a genuine opportunity for Donald Trump — rather than state what he’s against, he needs to talk about his second term.

EVEN TRUMP SUPPORTERS ARE DISMAYED that he hasn’t laid out an agenda. He had an opportunity when Sean Hannity asked him earlier this summer what his plan is for a second term. Trump whiffed, unable to provide specifics.

WHEN WE MEET WITH CLIENTS, a persistent question is what investors can expect in a second term. Our response: maybe infrastructure spending, more reliance on trade tariffs, building the wall, making tax cuts permanent, etc. Will Trump put some meat on those bones tonight?

IF HIS SPEECH IS SIMPLY A SCREED against rioters, socialism, China, tax hikes and the rest, that would be a lost opportunity for Trump. His base is solid; he needs to tell the rest of the country what he will do in a second term.

IF HE DOESN’T, THIS CONVENTION WILL BE QUICKLY FORGOTTEN — it was well-produced, with venues like the White House and Fort McHenry, with some pretty good speeches (Nikki Haley and Tim Scott) and some awful ones (Kimberly Guilfoyle and Larry Kudlow).

THE NEWS HAS OBSCURED THE CONVENTION — a monstrous hurricane, still another indefensible police shooting of a black man, more urban unrest, and the adoption of controversial new Covid guidelines by the CDC while Anthony Fauci was hospitalized.

TRUMP HAS MADE THE CONVENTION all about him; he craves the spotlight that will shine on him tonight. So he needs to make the most of it or he will leave with only a one or two point bump, just as Biden did.

TRUMP NEEDS MORE than a slight bump; he’s trailing Biden by about 7 points nationally, (less in key battleground states). Biden is hearing from party veterans who want him to go on the offensive, and he will.

BOTTOM LINE: If Trump has a solid night, we’ll probably enter September with Biden ahead by 5-to-7 points. That’s hardly an insurmountable lead, with California and New York giving the Democrats at least 3 points of that total.

BIDEN IS AHEAD IN ENOUGH STATES to win about 300 electoral votes (270 are needed). That’s a gap that Trump could narrow quickly after the first debate, on Sept. 29. His comeback depends on a strong performance tonight.


The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.

About AGF Management Limited

Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.

For further information, please visit AGF.com.

©2022 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

Written by

Greg Valliere

Greg Valliere

Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

AGF Investments

Also Read

  • Investing and Market Views

Using Technical Analysis to Navigate Market Volatility

June 21, 2022

  • Investing and Market Views

Should Equity Markets Really Be This Volatile?

June 20, 2022

  • Investing and Market Views

Agriculture Stocks and the Looming Global Food Crisis

June 15, 2022

  • Investing and Market Views

How Remote Work Is Changing the Cybersecurity Landscape

June 7, 2022

Get perspectives straight to your inbox.

Subscribe now

More articles like this.

Greg Valliere, Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

  • Industry and Expert Views

You Knew This Would be Coming: Speculation Begins on Hillary Clinton Running

Greg Valliere | June 29, 2022

Timely insights from inside Washington.

Read More
Greg Valliere, Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

  • Industry and Expert Views

How the Abortion Ruling Changes the Fall Election Outlook

Greg Valliere | June 27, 2022

Timely insights from inside Washington.

Read More
Greg Valliere, Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

  • Industry and Expert Views

Five Crucial Questions as Summer Begins

Greg Valliere | June 24, 2022

Timely insights from inside Washington.

Read More
AGF Logo
  • Industry and Expert Views
  • Investing and Market Views
  • Capitol Insights
Follow AGF

AGF Web Site Pages © 2022 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

Links
  • Terms & Conditions
  • Privacy
  • AGF.com