Donald Trump’s Re-election Campaign Begins Tonight
Author: Greg Valliere
February 5, 2019
MOST STATE OF THE UNION SPEECHES have a shelf life of about 24 hours, and tonight’s address probably will be no different; the bitter divisions over a border wall will persist, as both parties talk past each other. But for President Trump, this will be an opportunity to take credit for the Goldilocks economy — a key element in his re-election campaign, which starts tonight.
YES, TRUMP’S JOB APPROVAL RATINGS are miserable, in the low-40s, but Ronald Reagan’s were slightly worse in 1982, before a miraculous rebound and his subsequent landslide win in 1984. The key then was the economy, and that’s true today.
WALKING A TRICKY TIGHTROPE: Trump reportedly will sound more upbeat about the economy, but many of his core supporters don’t feel it. They believe the tax cuts only benefited corporations and the rich; the country overwhelmingly wants higher taxes on the wealthy. The markets have to pay close attention — higher taxes is the single biggest domestic issue heading into the next decade.
TRUMP NEEDS TO BOAST ABOUT THE ECONOMY TONIGHT: The labor market is red-hot and wages are rising. Inflation is tame. GDP should snap back this spring. Corporate earnings look solid. Real disposable income is rising, putting more money in people’s pockets. Trump needs to accentuate these positives.
BUT IT’S LIKELY THAT HE’LL GET BOGGED DOWN on two issues: funding for a border wall, which has sucked most of the oxygen out of Capitol Hill as shutdown politics have alienated most of Congress; and the threat of trade wars and tariffs — making business leaders reluctant to commit to new investments until there’s a resolution, which we don’t expect for a few more months.
TRUMP’S BASE WILL STICK WITH HIM when the endless Mueller probe finally ends, and why wouldn’t his base stay loyal? They want to hang tough versus China, they want a wall, and they have gotten their dream — two years of confirming dozens of conservative young judges, a great legacy for the president (and Mitch McConnell).
NOW TRUMP HAS A FOIL: If Democrats continue to veer sharply to the left, the scolding will intensify from Howard Schultz, who quite clearly would take more votes from the Democrats’ nominee, not Trump. The president, like Reagan versus Walter Mondale, can claim that his opponents have left the mainstream.
TRUMP IS NO REAGAN, BUT HE STILL HAS A PLAUSIBLE PATH TO RE-ELECTION: It’s a much narrower path than in 2016 thanks to Trump’s declining support in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, etc. Trump needs to expand his base and cut some deals. He’s a salesman who begins his final campaign tonight after a battering in January that raised the likelihood that Trump — unlike Reagan — could be a one-term president.
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