AGF Logo
  • Home
  • Industry and Expert Views
  • Investing and Market Views
  • Capitol Insights
  • Français
  • AGF.com
Skip to content
AGF logo
Insights and Market Perspectives
  • Industry and Expert Views
  • Investing and Market Views
  • Capitol Insights
  • Contributors
  • Français
  • Search
Search
Close
Emergency House Session Has Two Major Implications

  • Industry and Expert Views

For Print Only Logo
Insights and Market Perspectives

Emergency House Session Has Two Major Implications

Author: Greg Valliere

August 17, 2020

NANCY PELOSI’S CALL to re-convene the House later this week has two major implications — it reflects growing fears of a disputed election this fall, and it raises prospects that a stimulus bill could emerge from the crisis over the U.S. Postal Service.

THE DECISION TO BRING THE HOUSE BACK to Washington comes after an unprecedented level of constituent anxiety over the post office, as deliveries have slowed in the wake of changes at the USPS. Whether it involves prescriptions by mail or the election, voters are confused and angry.

THIS CRISIS — AND IT IS A CRISIS — intensified after the postal service warned 46 states that it could not guarantee that it could handle ballots in a timely manner. And it followed an astonishing statement from President Trump, who said he doesn’t want to make it easier to vote by mail.

TRUMP WALKED THAT BACK after a predictable uproar, but he now favors increased funding for the USPS only if it’s part of a larger bill that includes a wide package of stimulus — $1,200 checks, business assistance, liability protection, money for schools, etc. — that could be revived later this month.

THE HOUSE IS EXPECTED TO VOTE for post office assistance of up to $25 billion; when the negotiations stalled earlier this month, the number was about $10 billion. Assuming the Senate also comes back to town, both sides could agree on enough money to keep the post office operating through next year, with extra funding for ballots.

COULD THIS LEAD TO A STIMULUS BILL? Stay tuned — several Democrats said this weekend that postal funding could be wrapped into a bigger package. Trump certainly wants a deal, and lawmakers are getting an earful from constituents who are hurting badly as federal aid expires. We still expect a deal, but it may not come until late August or early September.

EVEN IF A STIMULUS BILL PASSES, real damage has been inflicted on voter confidence ahead of the election. Trump’s assertion that this will be the most rigged election in history has had an impact, with voters unsure whether they should mail in ballots, while expressing anxiety about standing in long voting lines in this era of Covid-19.

THUS WE REITERATE LAST WEEK’S PREDICTION that there’s a growing chance of a disputed election. A postponed election is very unlikely, but we think it could be many days after Nov. 3 before the outcome is clear. And the threat of litigation after a close election is very real. The Supreme Court may decide the outcome.

THIS COULD BE MOOT IF THE ELECTION IS A BLOWOUT, but recent polls show a tightening race — especially yesterday’s results from a CNN survey that showed Biden’s lead down to 4 points. Other polls give him a larger margin, but if the numbers tighten further this fall, which we expect, a disputed election will look even more likely.


The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.

About AGF Management Limited

Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.

For further information, please visit AGF.com.

©2022 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

Written by

Greg Valliere

Greg Valliere

Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

AGF Investments

Also Read

  • Investing and Market Views

Using Technical Analysis to Navigate Market Volatility

June 21, 2022

  • Investing and Market Views

Should Equity Markets Really Be This Volatile?

June 20, 2022

  • Investing and Market Views

Agriculture Stocks and the Looming Global Food Crisis

June 15, 2022

  • Investing and Market Views

How Remote Work Is Changing the Cybersecurity Landscape

June 7, 2022

Get perspectives straight to your inbox.

Subscribe now

More articles like this.

Greg Valliere, Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

  • Industry and Expert Views

How the Abortion Ruling Changes the Fall Election Outlook

Greg Valliere | June 27, 2022

Timely insights from inside Washington.

Read More
Greg Valliere, Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

  • Industry and Expert Views

Five Crucial Questions as Summer Begins

Greg Valliere | June 24, 2022

Timely insights from inside Washington.

Read More
Greg Valliere, Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

  • Industry and Expert Views

Donald Trump’s Disastrous June

Greg Valliere | June 23, 2022

Timely insights from inside Washington.

Read More
AGF Logo
  • Industry and Expert Views
  • Investing and Market Views
  • Capitol Insights
Follow AGF

AGF Web Site Pages © 2022 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

Links
  • Terms & Conditions
  • Privacy
  • AGF.com