Friday Rant — What We REALLY Think
Author: Greg Valliere
February 8, 2019
It’s finally Friday, after what seemed like a very long week. Time for a whole bunch of opinions, probably something to offend everyone. Here goes:
President Trump is trapped on a border wall and probably will cave, accepting whatever deal he can get. He’ll get some money for border security, take it or leave it. No shutdown.
Speaking of blinking, Jerome Powell has been totally intimidated by the markets; he won’t say or do anything that makes investors upset. What a victory for Wall Street; monetary policy will stay dovish.
What few politicians are willing to acknowledge: the Chinese are the bad guys on trade, stealing intellectual property from everyone, just not the U.S., hacking into companies, and rigging the system to favor their state-owned companies.
The Jeff Bezos-National Enquirer story will have legs. It combines two staples of American fascination: sex and crime. Blackmail and extortion, payments to porn stars? That’s breaking news !!
The liberal Democrats‘ “Green New Deal” is an Orwellian nightmare. Climate change is a real problem, but read the summaries of the unabashedly socialist plan unveiled yesterday — it’s a Godsend for Republicans.
Amy Klobuchar for President? Maybe not; she has quite a reputation for terrorizing staffers — she has the highest turnover rate of anyone in the Senate, and many of these staffers are talking.
Elizabeth Warren is in free-fall. She shamelessly proclaimed herself as an “American Indian” on lots of job applications that are turning up, and she just keeps digging a deeper hole with her disingenuous explanations.
Trump’s physical today — it won’t be pretty. No exercising, no healthy food. The over/under on his cholesterol score is probably 250. Healthiest president in history, as he claims? We don’t think so.
A huge political story in 2020 will be the Senate — Republicans have a decent chance of retaining control, and if they do, that’s the firewall that will block activist legislation, even if Democrats capture the White House.
Tough talk from the U.S. about Venezuela is just bluster. Any overt U.S. intervention would be disastrous because the Cubans and Russians have an iron grip on the country. A military coup is the only hope for real change.
Budget deficits will continue to surge after some modest improvement this year. The deficit Cassandras keep predicting disaster, but they ignore a key factor — the insatiable demand for Treasury paper. The spending binge will persist.
The big negative if Democrats raise taxes in the next decade may not necessarily be higher individual rates. The big negative would be higher business rates, which would hammer corporate earnings.
There’s a great challenge in our industry to educate young people about the benefits of capitalism and wealth creation. An entire generation seems to be economically illiterate.
Can’t figure out why there’s not more publicity over the fabulous economy. Maybe because the media is based in NYC — and in the Tri State region, growth is sluggish, the infrastructure stinks, government is inefficient and taxes are confiscatory, so naturally the economy looks limp if you live there. Come to Charlotte or Nashville — things look dramatically different.
The dichotomy between Washington and the rest of the country is enormous. Inside the Beltway, we’re bracing for Mueller and subpoenas. Outside the Beltway, most people don’t care.
Third party presidential candidates never succeed. Who was the last one to win even one state? George Wallace in 1968. Howard Schultz would be a scolding spoiler — really, what qualifies him to be president?
Of the dozens of people who may run in 2020, only one has the potential to be a truly first-rate president — Michael Bloomberg, who has the leadership skills, the backbone, and the intellect to make a real difference.
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