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From a sweet spot to a tougher spot

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Insights and Market Perspectives

From a sweet spot to a tougher spot

Author: Tristan Sones

March 22, 2019

It’s been a great start to the year for emerging market (EM) debt and high-yield credit, but the sweet spot in conditions that has led to the rally in both fixed income categories may be souring and future gains could be harder to come by over the next few months.  

Much of what lies ahead will increasingly depend on the global economy. Over the past few months, investors in riskier pockets of the bond market have largely downplayed the fact that economic data has weakened around the world and instead have chosen to focus on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to not raise interest rates further – at least for the time being.

This makes good sense given that an extended pause by the Fed could be especially beneficial to higher-yielding bonds whose competitive advantage has been slowly eroded by the central bank’s hiking cycle and subsequent rise in government bond yields. In the case of EM debt, moreover, there is the potential added benefit of a prolonged hold on rates leading to less U.S. dollar strength which has been a stubborn headwind for developing countries with current account deficits, in particular.

All of this, however, has largely been priced in and fears about the fallout from a more protracted economic slowdown should start coming to the fore. This, in turn, could leave riskier assets more vulnerable regardless of the direction that global growth eventually takes. Both EM and high-yield debt, for example, could pullback if the economic backdrop continues to falter, while, an improving economy from here may reignite the Fed’s hiking cycle and trim recent gains to much or all of the fixed income market.


“While exposure to high-yield and EM debt remains crucial, stress testing portfolios is increasingly necessary to make sure it is not overly-concentrated in any one fixed income category.”

Needless to say, it’s a tougher spot to be in for investors, but with default rates low and no extreme excesses in the credit market right now, it begs the further question of just how defensive should they get without giving up entirely on the opportunity to generate more yield?  

While exposure to high-yield and EM debt remains crucial, stress testing portfolios is increasingly necessary to make sure it is not overly-concentrated in any one fixed income category. This may require some “right-sizing” of positions in higher-yielding areas and giving more consideration to lower-yielding government bonds (i.e. rates) which can provide an important ballast in this type of uncertain environment.  Investors should also take advantage of this good credit environment to trim exposure to the cyclical names that might be more susceptible to further economic weakness.    

It may be prudent as well to keep credit duration a little shorter and rates duration a little longer, while limiting EM exposure to countries with better or potentially improving fundamentals. This includes those with low refinancing risk, better domestic growth dynamics, a material reform agenda and/or the backstopping and funding of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). For example, Ecuador, the Ukraine and Argentina are all high yield rated countries that have some form of an IMF program in place and a fractional position in their very short-dated debt can provide additional yield with a more favourable risk profile.

If anything, fixed income investors will need to take an approach that is a little more nimble than was required at the beginning of the year. While the recent sweet spot in conditions gave lift to the higher-yielding segments of the market, what lies ahead will be much more discerning.

Tristan Sones is a Vice-President and Portfolio Manager at AGF Investments Inc. He is a regular contributor to AGF Perspectives.


The commentaries contained herein are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of March 21, 2019 and should not be considered as investment advice or an offer or solicitations to buy and/or sell securities. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Investors are expected to obtain professional investment advice.
The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), Highstreet Asset Management Inc. (Highstreet), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Asset Management (Asia) Limited (AGF AM Asia) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA is a registered advisor in the U.S. AGFI and Highstreet are registered as portfolio managers across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. AGF AM Asia is registered as a portfolio manager in Singapore. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
™ The ‘AGF’ logo is a trademark of AGF Management Limited and used under licence.

About AGF Management Limited

Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.

For further information, please visit AGF.com.

© 2021 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

Written by

Tristan Sones

Tristan Sones, CFA®

Vice-President and Portfolio Manager, Co-Head of Fixed Income

AGF Investments Inc.

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