Furious Trump Mauls Biden; Here are the Implications
Author: Greg Valliere
September 30, 2020
LAST NIGHT’S EMBARRASSING, cringe-inducing debate was all about Donald Trump — angry and belligerent, breaking all the rules — as he crudely mauled Joe Biden, who at times seemed stunned by the ferocity. But Trump needed to win a dwindling group of undecided voters, and on that score he probably failed.
WITH BOTH CANDIDATES TALKING PAST EACH OTHER, it’s difficult to imagine that either of them won many new converts; millions of viewers may have dropped out before the debate ended. So we have to conclude that the race probably hasn’t changed much, with Biden still ahead by about 6 points in the popular vote and on a path to capture a narrow Electoral College victory.
BIDEN WAS ADEQUATE: We masochistically watched the debate a second time during the night, and thought Biden was more assertive than our initial impression. Yes, Biden looks old, but he was sure-footed with his sound bites and got in his own shots against Trump. Biden was adequate, with no serious gaffes; he cleared the low bar that Trump inexplicably gave him.
Some key take-aways:
This Could Get Worse: The chilling comments by Trump on a “rigged” election reinforced our belief that he will go all the way to the Supreme Court if it looks like he narrowly lost. Trump will claim that mail-in ballots in key states are fraudulent, and there are fresh examples of irregularities in New York that will reinforce his argument.
The markets have to brace for weeks of uncertainty; the high court didn’t settle Bush v. Gore until Dec. 12, 2000. Could a protracted stalemate lead to civil unrest? Trump didn’t make any effort last night to calm his far-right supporters.
Missed Opportunities: Inexplicably, Biden did not pounce on the New York Times assertion that Trump owes over $400 million to creditors; that’s the most serious allegation regarding Trump’s taxes. And Biden did not point out that the federal government owns most of the smoldering California forests, which Trump insists are poorly managed.
Let’s Call it Off? The debate was such a train wreck that there will be inevitable
calls today to skip the next two debates. But we doubt that either candidate would
agree. Next comes the VP debate on Oct. 7, then two more Trump-Biden clashes, on Oct. 15 and 22.
The next big event: This Friday’s unemployment report might show that the summer economic recovery is running out of steam. We continue to believe the economy needs more fiscal stimulus — it’s not a question of whether, but when. Steve Mnuchin may offer a final proposal today to Nancy Pelosi, but a deal is more likely to come later rather than sooner.
The bottom line: We’re still not ready to make a final call (let’s see the post-debate polls), although we continue to believe that if the election were held today, Biden would win, probably taking the Senate with him. Can Trump narrow the gap in the final five weeks? Perhaps — but not if he has another debate like last night; Trump’s anger and bullying hurt his cause.
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