
Guess Who’s Surging in California?
Author: Greg Valliere
January 30, 2020
AS THE IMPEACHMENT FIGHT WINDS DOWN (hint — Donald Trump will be acquitted soon), all eyes will shift to the primary season, which begins next Monday in Iowa. But that state’s quirky caucuses may not produce a clear result, with four candidates closely bunched together.
LIBERAL CALIFORNIA IS FAR MORE IMPORTANT, with a mother lode at stake — nearly 40% of all delegates — along with instant momentum for the winner in the Super Tuesday primary there on March 3. So imagine the anguish this morning from the Obamas, the Clintons and the party’s establishment — Bernie Sanders is surging in the Golden State.
A NEW POLL IN THE LOS ANGELES TIMES has the Vermont socialist at 26%, Elizabeth Warren at 20% and Joe Biden in the danger zone at 15%. No other candidate is in double digits.
WE THINK SANDERS WILL DO WELL ENOUGH IN IOWA, then will win New Hampshire on Feb. 11. He should finish first or second in the Feb. 22 Nevada caucuses, while Biden is likely to win the South Carolina primary on Feb. 29. Then comes Super Tuesday . . . with California, Texas, North Carolina, Tennessee, etc.
IT’S ALL ABOUT THE DELEGATES, and after the Michigan primary on March 10, Sanders could have a narrow lead over Biden, thanks largely to California. It’s way too early to make a definitive prediction on the nominee, but we think there’s a growing likelihood that the divided party won’t have a first ballot nominee when delegates arrive in Milwaukee on July 13.
* * * * *
WE JUST GOT OFF A RED-EYE, so we’ll keep the impeachment analysis brief this morning. The Republicans seem willing to endure a stretch of bad publicity after they block testimony from witnesses, and the White House will muzzle John Bolton. Donald Trump’s goal of acquittal before next Tuesday’s State of the Union address seems attainable.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2023 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.