Guess Who’s Surging in California?
Author: Greg Valliere
January 30, 2020
AS THE IMPEACHMENT FIGHT WINDS DOWN (hint — Donald Trump will be acquitted soon), all eyes will shift to the primary season, which begins next Monday in Iowa. But that state’s quirky caucuses may not produce a clear result, with four candidates closely bunched together.
LIBERAL CALIFORNIA IS FAR MORE IMPORTANT, with a mother lode at stake — nearly 40% of all delegates — along with instant momentum for the winner in the Super Tuesday primary there on March 3. So imagine the anguish this morning from the Obamas, the Clintons and the party’s establishment — Bernie Sanders is surging in the Golden State.
A NEW POLL IN THE LOS ANGELES TIMES has the Vermont socialist at 26%, Elizabeth Warren at 20% and Joe Biden in the danger zone at 15%. No other candidate is in double digits.
WE THINK SANDERS WILL DO WELL ENOUGH IN IOWA, then will win New Hampshire on Feb. 11. He should finish first or second in the Feb. 22 Nevada caucuses, while Biden is likely to win the South Carolina primary on Feb. 29. Then comes Super Tuesday . . . with California, Texas, North Carolina, Tennessee, etc.
IT’S ALL ABOUT THE DELEGATES, and after the Michigan primary on March 10, Sanders could have a narrow lead over Biden, thanks largely to California. It’s way too early to make a definitive prediction on the nominee, but we think there’s a growing likelihood that the divided party won’t have a first ballot nominee when delegates arrive in Milwaukee on July 13.
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WE JUST GOT OFF A RED-EYE, so we’ll keep the impeachment analysis brief this morning. The Republicans seem willing to endure a stretch of bad publicity after they block testimony from witnesses, and the White House will muzzle John Bolton. Donald Trump’s goal of acquittal before next Tuesday’s State of the Union address seems attainable.
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