Harris, By a Fraction
Author: Greg Valliere
November 1, 2024
THIS IS THE CLOSEST ELECTION WE’VE EVER SEEN. OUR FINAL CALL — A LOW-CONFIDENCE CALL — IS THAT KAMALA HARRIS WILL WIN THE PRESIDENCY BY A FRACTION.
THIS HAS BEEN AN ELECTION of momentum swings, and the final movement has favored Harris. We think she will win about 280 electoral votes, just above the 270 required.
WE HAVE OUR DOUBTS about Harris, but our greater concern is the increasingly erratic Donald Trump, who has alienated much of the electorate. He faces an overwhelming rejection by women voters, and Harris now leads — narrowly — in states like Wisconsin and Michigan.
THIS ELECTION IS SO CLOSE that it could be Christmas before there’s a final result. It’s virtually certain that we won’t know the winner on the morning of Nov. 6, the day after the election. A winner has to be declared by noon on Jan. 20.
TRUMP IS CERTAIN TO CONTEST THE OUTCOME: He already is claiming fraud, and he already is amassing an army of attorneys. (So is Harris.)
IT’S POSSIBLE THAT HARRIS WINS COMFORTABLY — she even may make a last-minute push in Florida — and it’s possible that Trump may win Pennsylvania, and thus the election.
BUT THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME IS A PHOTO FINISH — Harris by a fraction in a race that may not be settled until there’s a resolution of at least 8 or 9 recounts. The big winners will be the lawyers.
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