Health Care — Donald Trump’s Albatross?
Author: Greg Valliere
September 24, 2020
IF JOE BIDEN WINS THE ELECTION, health care will be a major factor. Voters are nervous about coverage for pre-existing conditions, which could be threatened in an upcoming Supreme Court ruling on Obamacare — so Biden will tie the issue of packing the court with conservatives to threats to health coverage.
PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS REPEATEDLY stated that a new White House alternative to Obamacare will be announced “in two weeks,” but he’s said that for the past few months, and no plan has been unveiled.
TRUMP HAS BEEN UNCOMFORTABLE with this policy mine field, and he clearly trails in polls on which candidate can best address health care, so he has scheduled a photo op today in North Carolina to address the issue.
TRUMP APPARENTLY WILL SIGN an executive order today. vowing to preserve the pre-existing conditions provision, but his recent signing events have had no legal standing. He will endorse lower drug prices, more price transparency, and help for people who face surprise bills. But he apparently will not address the pending case to abolish Obamacare, according to this morning’s Washington Post, because that option polls poorly.
WITH TRUMP NOW THREATENING THE FDA, demanding the agency quickly approve a vaccine, voters are expressing uneasiness over health care, and this gives Biden an opening.
POLLS SHOW THAT HEALTH CARE is the top policy concern of white women, the key demographic group in the election. Polls show Biden has a clear lead when voters are asked who can best protect people with pre-existing conditions, and he leads when people are asked who can best preserve Obamacare, which has become increasingly popular.
AND NOW BIDEN CAN CLAIM that the court will be stacked with conservatives who may gut Obamacare. The high court will consider a Republican-backed suit to abolish Obamacare; oral arguments are scheduled for Nov. 10, with the new justice probably on board. Biden surely will cite this case in the upcoming debates.
* * * * *
MEANWHILE, Trump wasted another day yesterday with his astonishing allegation that the Supreme Court will decide the election because voting will be rigged against him. Once again, he refused to say whether he would accept the election results, so that dominated the Washington news cycle.
THIS PROMPTED MITT ROMNEY, who sided with Trump on the Supreme Court, to issue the following statement: “Fundamental to democracy is the peaceful transition of power; without that, there is Belarus. Any suggestion that a president might not respect this Constitutional guarantee is both unthinkable and unacceptable.”
WE HAVE WRITTEN FREQUENTLY in recent months that a disputed election is a real theat. We have said this is a one-in-three probability, but we’re getting closer to 50-50. At the least, it will take days after the election to count all votes; at the worst, the outcome will be determined by the courts.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2021 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.