If Joe Biden Becomes President, This Will Be His Biggest Political Challenge
Author: Greg Valliere
October 9, 2020
EVERY FACTION OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY will claim credit if Joe Biden wins on Nov. 3, but there’s one group that will relentlessly challenge him: progressives, who already are expressing reservations about his policies.
IF BIDEN BECOMES PRESIDENT, he will face an increasingly leftist House, where Nancy Pelosi, 80, is unlikely to serve much longer. Progressive insurgents, led by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, will push their agenda, although AOC is eyeing a big prize — taking down Chuck Schumer, who could be vulnerable to her 2022 challenge for his New York Senate seat.
AOC WAS IN THE NEWS this week, objecting to Kamala Harris’ assertion that there would be no banning of fracking in a Biden Administration. Ocasio Cortez said that’s a bad idea, the first of many criticisms she will lob at the Biden camp.
THE FRICTION between traditional center-left Democrats and the Progressives will be the greatest political challenge Biden will face if he becomes president. There are disagreements on police funding, tax policy, the extent of a Green New Deal, student loan forgiveness, Obamacare expansion and antitrust policies.
INSTITUTIONAL CHANGES WILL BE A MAJOR FOCUS: Progressives want to expand the Supreme Court, but Biden reportedly is lukewarm. They want statehood for Puerto Rico and the District of Columbia, but Biden is reluctant. And they want to kill Senate filibuster rules, which Biden has always opposed, although he recently has indicated a willingness to consider the idea.
CAVING IN TO THE LEFT could expose Biden to House and Senate losses in the 2022 midterm elections, his supporters believe. Republicans were pleased by Mike Pence’s assertions in this week’s debate that the Democrats have lurched leftward, and that undoubtedly will be a big theme for the GOP in the 2022 elections.
BIDEN HAS MADE A POINT of saying that “this is my party,” and he has a reputation as a skilled negotiator. But progressive activists will be in no mood to compromise if Biden goes soft on tax hikes for the wealthy and corporations; he told them all summer that he would embrace an activist agenda, and they will hold Biden to that promise.
REPUBLICANS CLAIM BIDEN IS CONTROLLED by the left, but that isn’t exactly true. He’s threatened by the left, which will generate numerous progressive bills in the House that could move quickly if there’s a Blue Wave. If Biden seeks to water down these bills, the fissures within the party will deepen quickly.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2022 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.