AGF Logo
  • Home
  • Industry and Expert Views
  • Investing and Market Views
  • Capitol Insights
  • Français
  • AGF.com
Skip to content
AGF logo
Insights and Market Perspectives
  • Industry and Expert Views
  • Investing and Market Views
  • Capitol Insights
  • Contributors
  • Français
  • Search
Search
Close
Joe Biden is the Presidential Front-runner

  • Industry and Expert Views

For Print Only Logo
Insights and Market Perspectives

Joe Biden is the Presidential Front-runner

Author: Greg Valliere

May 21, 2020

NEW NATIONAL POLLS AND ELECTORAL COLLEGE PROJECTIONS convince us that if the election were held today, Joe Biden would defeat Donald Trump. The election will be held on Nov. 3, of course, but Trump is in real trouble.

THE FINANCIAL MARKETS generally expect Trump to win, perhaps comfortably, as do betting sites and Las Vegas oddsmakers. These pros believe that you underestimate Trump at your own peril, and we agree.

BUT A NEW POLL, released yesterday from Quinnipiac University, is quite a wake-up call. It shows Trump trailing by 11 points nationally, with Biden hitting the crucial
50% mark and Trump slumping to 39%.

WHY THE CHANGE? Most polls have shown Biden leading narrowly, but this poll seems to zero in on Trump’s great weakness: the public increasingly thinks he has not done a good job on the virus, with 56% disapproving. Quinnipiac’s poll is well-regarded, and its findings are well outside of the margin of error.

WE THINK THIS POLL OVERSTATES BIDEN’S STRENGTH, but it now appears that he’s closer to 270 electoral votes than Trump — this is the key factor that financial markets have overlooked. Biden has opened up a wide lead in Michigan, a modest lead in Pennsylvania and a surprising lead in Arizona. If he wins those three states, Biden would have a very plausible path to the White House.

MOREOVER, BIDEN’S VP PICK could help him in key states. Kamala Harris could add a point or two to African-American vote totals in North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, etc. Or Amy Klobuchar could help Biden in Iowa and Wisconsin; both states border her home state of Minnesota.

BIDEN ISN’T A VERY DYNAMIC CHALLENGER, but that might not matter much because it increasingly appears that this election will not be about him. It will be a referendum on Trump’s handling of the virus, and his dismissive comments in March will be replayed thousands of times in Democrats’ ads.

“WE’LL MAKE THIS ELECTION all about Trump’s call to inject disinfectants, his belief that the virus would be gone by April, his use of a drug that has serious side
effects,” a Democratis strategist says. The Democrats will focus on Trump’s
temperament and judgment, this source adds.

OUR TAKE IS AS FOLLOWS: If there’s a spike in new cases, fueling a belief that the country opened up too soon, Trump will lose. If, on the other hand, new infections are modest and the economy begins to rebound, Trump will climb in the polls. He still gets good grades on the economy, which should begin to rebound by fall.

SO IT’S WAY TOO EARLY TO COUNT OUT TRUMP: He has excellent energy, plenty of money, and is preparing to ruthlessly attack Biden, who sometimes can’t find the right words in debates. And Trump is masterful at changing the subject — are mail-in ballots fraudulent? Is “Obmagate” really a big deal? Trump will spin those and other issues to his advantage.

WHILE TRUMP IS TRAILING NOW, it’s important to remember that Hillary Clinton was clearly leading — by high-single digits — four years ago. Much will happen
between today and November — but for now, we make Biden the narrow favorite. The markets need to take notice, because he has pivoted to the left in an effort to lock up Bernie Sanders’ supporters.


The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.

About AGF Management Limited

Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.

For further information, please visit AGF.com.

©2022 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

Written by

Greg Valliere

Greg Valliere

Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

AGF Investments

Also Read

  • Investing and Market Views

Will the Fed and Other Central Banks Get It Right?

May 20, 2022

  • Investing and Market Views

What Happens to Industrial Stocks When Supply Chain Issues Ease?

May 19, 2022

  • Investing and Market Views

Why Food Inflation Has an Outsized Impact on Emerging Market Bond Investors

May 12, 2022

  • Investing and Market Views

What An Inverted Yield Curve Could Mean This Time Around

May 6, 2022

Get perspectives straight to your inbox.

Subscribe now

More articles like this.

Greg Valliere, Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

  • Industry and Expert Views

Biden in Asia: Sending a Message to China

Greg Valliere | May 19, 2022

Timely insights from inside Washington.

Read More
Greg Valliere, Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

  • Industry and Expert Views

Elections Are Still All About Donald Trump: Here’s Our GOP Top Ten

Greg Valliere | May 18, 2022

Timely insights from inside Washington.

Read More
Greg Valliere, Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

  • Industry and Expert Views

Who Might Replace Vladimir Putin?

Greg Valliere | May 17, 2022

Timely insights from inside Washington.

Read More
AGF Logo
  • Industry and Expert Views
  • Investing and Market Views
  • Capitol Insights
Follow AGF

AGF Web Site Pages © 2022 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

Links
  • Terms & Conditions
  • Privacy
  • AGF.com