Joe Biden’s Campaign is Imploding
Author: Greg Valliere
February 5, 2020
NO ONE WILL EVER KNOW WITH CERTAINTY who won the Iowa caucuses, but there’s no question who lost — reeling Joe Biden, who probably will finish a distant fourth or possibly even fifth in the popular vote tally. His campaign is imploding.
WE CONTINUE TO BELIEVE that Bernie Sanders will win New Hampshire next Tuesday; Biden could finish second or third. The former vice president has a narrow lead in the Feb. 22 Nevada caucuses, and is clinging to a shrinking lead in the Feb. 29 South Carolina primary — his alleged “firewall” because African-Americans allegedly will give him a victory.
BIDEN PROBABLY WILL WIN ENOUGH DELEGATES in the March 3 Super Tuesday primaries to remain in the race, but it’s becoming clear that he simply may be out of juice. Democrats want red meat, or a fresh face, and Biden brings neither to the race. Some quick observations in the wake of the Iowa fiasco:
BERNIE SANDERS, FRONT-RUNNER: If he wins in California on Super Tuesday, Sanders could be on his way to a first-ballot victory. This terrifies establishment Democrats, who will aggressively attempt to stop Sanders; his supporters fear sabotage, and those fears are not unwarranted.
WE REITERATE YESTERDAY’S ASSERTION that Mike Bloomberg, spending even more lavishly, now has a clear opening. Many Democrats hate the idea of a Wall Street billionaire buying the nomination, but their hatred of Trump exceeds their reservations about Bloomberg.
THE LONG-SHOT SCENARIO that can’t be totally ruled out is that voters now take another look at Pete Buttigieg and conclude that it’s time for a fresh face. He has the money to last until the July convention.
EVERYTHING’S BROKEN: The Iowa caucuses are broken, hopefully for good; the Democrats are in disarray, their gloom growing today as Donald Trump wins acquittal; and Washington is broken, as Trump and Nancy Pelosi graphically demonstrated last night.
THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS was a preview of Trump’s campaign themes. His boasting about economic accomplishments was wildly exaggerated, but so what? His Gallup approval rating hit 49% yesterday, a personal best. And now Democrats — who thought Joe Biden would have the best chance to beat Trump — worry that Biden might not even be in the race by April.
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