Last Night’s Big Winner — Donald Trump
Author: Greg Valliere
June 27, 2019
WE HAVE VOWED to watch every minute of every debate in this long political slog, which is roughly comparable to committing to several root canals without Novocaine. The first inning ended last night with one clear winner: Donald J. Trump, who is gifted at demonizing foils — and he just got plenty of fresh ammunition.
IMPRESSING THE ACTIVISTS: With few exceptions, the candidates want to impress the activists with their advocacy of expensive new government programs, with no plausible way of paying for them — other than higher taxes on “the rich.” Two of the major candidates — Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders — want to do away with private health insurance, a vow that could haunt the Democrats in the general election.
TRUMP TWEETED THAT THE DEBATE WAS BORING, but he must have been smacking his lips — the debate last night (and probably tonight as well) reinforce his argument that the Democrats are moving toward a socialist agenda. Yet that gives Joe Biden the opening he needs: he’s hardly a socialist, so Biden is electable, while most of his 23 opponents are not.
BIDEN SIMPLY HAS TO AVOID GAFFES TONIGHT (admittedly a challenge for him) and he will emerge as the affable moderate who can win Pennsylvania and Michigan. If Biden stumbles, the Democrats’s sharp veer to the left would gain momentum, and Trump would become the clear general election favorite. But if Biden retains his front-runner status, we would continue to anticipate an Electoral College cliffhanger.
Meanwhile, here’s our very quick take on last night:
Julian Castro: The surprise winner, on the short list for the VP nod. Might be more formidable if he could speak Spanish.
Elizabeth Warren: Solid, passionate, wonky — still clearly in the top tier, an enormous threat to the financial services industry.
Beto O’Rourke: Not ready for prime time, deer in the headlights, had a very bad night.
Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, Bill de Blasio: Probably helped themselves a little.
Tulsi Gabbard, Jay Inslee, John Delaney, Tim Ryan: Not gonna happen, they’re wasting their time and money.
ANY WONDER WHY VOTERS ARE DISILLUSIONED? Candidates in both parties make lavish promises — let’s bring factory jobs back to the U.S., let’s solve climate change, let’s abolish private health insurance — even though they know these ideas have no chance of enactment. Student loan forgiveness is the most blatant example of attempting to buy votes with promises that have zero chance in the Senate.
THE PANDERING will resume this evening, undoubtedly to Trump’s delight . . .
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2021 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.