Michael Bloomberg’s Very Bad Weekend
Author: Greg Valliere
November 11, 2019
BLOOMBERG’S TRIAL BALLOON IS A LEAD BALLOON: All of his billions may not be enough for Michael Bloomberg to win the Democrats’ nomination. Enthusiasm is more important than money, and most of the party’s voters responded with a resounding Bronx cheer this weekend.
AMY KLOBUCHAR, always spot-on and often very funny, said it best: It was like Bloomberg decided that none of the Democrats running for president are good enough. The resentment of Bloomberg’s ego is palpable; if anything, he has unified the party against him and raises the possibility that Bloomberg will get the hint and end his quixotic campaign in the next few days.
WE TALKED WITH MANY DEMOCRATS THIS WEEKEND, most of whom agree with us that Bloomberg would make a very good president. But everyone we talked with thinks time has passed him by; he will turn 78 this winter. His flaws? Four stand out:
1. The party has shifted far to the left and billionaires are the enemy (along with Wall Street, which is reviled).
2. Bloomberg will skip the first several primaries, infuriating the party’s base and the candidates who have slogged through Iowa for months.
3. Bloomberg’s views on issues like “stop and frisk” are anathema to the left and minorities.
4. Bloomberg is not a great campaigner — he’s a mediocre speaker who tends to scold.
WE WROTE LAST FRIDAY that Bloomberg had a 25% chance of winning the nomination but we need to walk that back. It’s more like 15%; the party will become increasingly angry if he tries to spend his way to victory, as he did in New York.
THE SHOCK WAVES THIS WEEKEND produced two conflicting bottom lines. There was sympathy for Joe Biden, who has run a surprisingly gaffe-free campaign in Iowa, yet there was a sense that if Bloomberg weakens Biden, Elizabeth Warren could benefit. How ironic — Bloomberg may have helped a candidate who would like to soak him with a huge wealth tax.
WE’LL TAKE A CAREFUL LOOK at Biden in this evening’s Town Hall on CNN at 9:00 ET. He usually gets a grade of B in these types of events, and that might be enough tonight. Biden is still the very shaky favorite to win the nomination, which is more than can be said of Bloomberg.
* * * *
A SOMBER DAY, it always was for our grandparents and their parents — on the eleventh hour of the eleventh day of the eleventh month of 1918, the Great War ended. We offer sincere gratitude to those who serve on our behalf.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), Highstreet Asset Management Inc. (Highstreet), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Asset Management (Asia) Limited (AGF AM Asia) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA is a registered advisor in the U.S. AGFI and Highstreet are registered as portfolio managers across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. AGF AM Asia is registered as a portfolio manager in Singapore. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
© 2020 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.