Mitch McConnell Has the Votes; Second Wave in Europe
Author: Greg Valliere
September 22, 2020
RESISTANCE IS FUTILE: Democrats seemed close to throwing in the towel yesterday, as key Republicans sided with Majority Leader Mitch McConnell on confirming Donald Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, probably before the election.
FOUR REPUBLICAN DEFECTORS would be required to stop McConnell, and only two have bolted. Mitt Romney doesn’t seem eager to make it three, and there’s no other likely rebel. The Democrats, who had vowed a scorched earth fight, seemed resigned to defeat yesterday.
SOME DEMOCRATS CALLED, absurdly, for impeaching Trump once again. Others said legislation could be derailed, but shutting down the government on Oct. 1 over Trump farm subsidies would be politically futile. Some Democrats vowed to block a pandemic aid bill, but that would only hurt their constituents. A few called for stacking the Supreme Court, but that didn’t work out too well for FDR in 1937.
JOE BIDEN, seemingly conceding the Supreme Court outlook, barely mentioned it in a speech yesterday in Wisconsin. He said, incredibly, that “this is not a partisan moment.” Really ?? We have rarely seen a more partisan moment, and a fierce debate over abortion rights is about to begin — a fight that Biden, a devout Catholic, would prefer to avoid.
POLLS SHOW THAT THE PUBLIC wants the Nov. 3 presidential winner to decide the next Supreme Court nominee, and polls show that Americans generally support abortion rights. Yet the probable nominee, Roe v Wade opponent Amy Coney Barrett, is likely to win confirmation — and the Democrats seemingly have no recourse.
YOUNG FEMALE VOTERS GAVE HILLARY CLINTON only lukewarm support in 2016; she won about 54% of the total female vote but lost non-college educated women, and Trump has nearly 60% of that demographic in recent polls. A clear assault on Roe v. Wade could motivate those voters, but will they support a nominee as passive as Biden?
* * * * *
THE SECOND WAVE: England and much of Western Europe face a nightmare — the need to shut down, or at least curb hours at restaurants, stores and other public places, as a Second Wave emerges. The last time Europe was staggered by the virus, new cases in the U.S. rose within weeks — and former FDA Director Scott Gottlieb says the U.S. will have “at least one more cycle with this virus, heading into the fall and winter.”
TRUMP SAYS VACCINES will be available in a matter of weeks, which is ridiculous; his own health experts are openly contradicting him. Trump has his diversion — the Supreme Court — but many Americans will continue to hunker down, afraid to fly or dine out or go to malls. After a decent third quarter, the economy will soften in the fourth quarter.
THE GROWING REALIZATION that the virus is far from contained makes a pandemic aid bill even more necessary; Fed Chairman Jerome Powell undoubtedly will call for more spending when he testifies this morning before Congress. Steve Mnuchin, also testifying, will offer to resume talks, but the Democrats — enraged over McConnell — are in no mood to negotiate.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2022 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.