Money Talks — Tom Steyer Makes a Move
Author: Greg Valliere
January 10, 2020
OF ALL THE REMAINING DEMOCRATS running for president, the least impressive candidate of all — Tom Steyer — is making a move. New polls show him in double digits in the early primaries in South Carolina and Nevada, enough for Steyer to qualify for next Tuesday’s debate in Iowa.
WITH MIKE BLOOMBERG making a modest move, the message to candidates seems clear — don’t waste your time trudging in the slush and snow of Iowa and New Hampshire, just saturate the country with slick TV ads in states that will vote later, especially in the quasi-national primary on Super Tuesday, March 3.
HOW LUCKY IS DONALD TRUMP? Joe Biden, who frequently confuses Iran and Iraq, should do well in Iowa and New Hampshire, but Bernie Sanders has the most important asset — lots of passionate supporters, more than any politician other than Trump. Sanders will do well in the two early contests, but if the 78-year-old socialist really has a chance of winning the nomination, there would be a fierce push-back from Barack Obama and party elders.
BLOOMBERG WOULD HAVE A CHANCE IN NOVEMBER, but he needs to win the nomination first. His ads are excellent and he can easily outspend Steyer. Bloomberg needs Biden to stumble next Tuesday, and that’s always possible. As for the other candidates, Pete Buttigieg has leveled off, Elizabeth Warren has won some impressive endorsements, and the rest are stuck in the single digits. It’s still Biden’s race to lose.
THE GOOD NEWS FOR TRUMP continues to defy the skeptics. This morning’s Financial Times reports on a new poll by the Peterson Institute showing that a majority of Americans now believe he has been good for the economy. A formal
signing ceremony with China on a modest trade deal will come soon. The Democrats have stumbled on impeachment. And Iran clearly blinked this week, although it’s premature for an all-clear signal in that volatile area of the world.
FROSTING ON THE CAKE FOR TRUMP is the surge by Steyer, a sign that many Democrats are still dissatisfied with the current pack. Trump soon will have a nasty nickname for Steyer; with his typical understatement, Trump called the billionaire “a crazed and stumbling lunatic” last fall. More substantively, Steyer will have to explain his infatuation with fossil fuels a decade ago, before he found religion.
THE QUESTION WE HEAR MOST FREQUENTLY is whether it’s too late for a fresh challenger to enter the Democrats’ race — Hillary Clinton, Michelle Obama, etc.? It’s too late; state filing deadlines have come and gone. So the demoralized Democrats have to hope that Biden does as well next Tuesday night as he did in last month’s debate; he’s the party’s best hope, by default.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2022 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
