Nancy Pelosi’s Impeachment Bombshell — Five Take-aways
Author: Greg Valliere
March 12, 2019
WASHINGTON WAS BUZZING LAST NIGHT about a bombshell from Nancy Pelosi, who declared that she doesn’t favor impeaching Donald Trump, “who’s not worth it.” Left-wing activists were outraged, while moderates recognized this as still another clever move from Pelosi, who totally out-maneuvered Trump on the government shut-down. Our five quick takes:
Aiming for 2020: Pelosi undoubtedly realizes that no one in politics today can play against a foil like Trump, who plans to mock Democrats in the next campaign as socialists who tolerate anti-Semitism. She doesn’t want to give him still another foil — running against the impeachment party. Pelosi has concluded that if voters really want to remove Trump (over half do) they can vote him out of office in the 2020 election, which could be all about Trump, with potentially disastrous results for the GOP.
Remembering the Clinton impeachment: Republicans badly miscalculated when they impeached Bill Clinton in late 1998; he was acquitted by the Senate in early 1999 as the public rallied behind Clinton. Pelosi can count votes and must realize that there aren’t enough in the Senate to convict Trump, based on what we know presently. It would take 67 votes to oust him, but the Democrats hold only 47 seats. An impeachment trial thus could be futile, with Trump boasting that there was never enough evidence to convict.
Leaving some wiggle room: Pelosi is careful to say she opposes impeachment unless there’s a smoking gun — and there could be, from Robert Mueller, the Southern District of New York, or some fresh controversy such as blanket pardons from the president.
Preparing for the next battle: Pelosi has other wars to wage — primarily the budget, where she’s aiming for another smackdown of Trump. She’ll have the upper hand in a messy debt ceiling fight this fall because Trump doesn’t have enough Republican votes in the House to avoid default. He’ll have to beg Pelosi for votes from Democrats, and she’s already thinking of her price: more domestic spending and no border wall with Mexico.
A very divided party: Pelosi’s bombshell is not sitting well with some Democrats, most of whom want to see all the evidence before deciding on impeachment. There will be plenty of sniping at her from the left in the coming days, so she’ll give progressives plenty of leeway, while inoculating herself by aligning with party moderates like Joe Biden, the frontrunner — today — for the 2020 nomination.
BOTTOM LINE: Pelosi isn’t eyeing support from the fanatic Trump base or her own left wing activists — she’s aiming for voters in the center; blue collar workers in Pennsylvania are already weary of investigations and impeachment talk. Trump is counting on winning those votes by claiming he’s the victim of a rabid impeachment mob, but Pelosi won’t be part of that mob; she’s always a move ahead of him on the chessboard.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2021 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
