Our Monthly Top Ten Has Changed — The Democrats’ Field Narrows to Seven
Author: Greg Valliere
March 13, 2019
IN JUST ONE MONTH, there’s been an unusual degree of clarity in the Democrats’ field of presidential candidates. Two potential heavyweights — Michael Bloomberg and Sherrod Brown — have decided not to run, and now there’s a clear front-runner. And we no longer have a Top Ten; there are only seven candidates who have a plausible chance of winning the nomination. Here goes:
The field: Julian Castro, in for the long haul; Terry McAuliffe, will have money; Stacey Abrams, hasn’t ruled it out; Pete Buttigieg, running for 2024 and beyond; Tim Ryan, has blue collar appeal; Jay Inslee, focused on climate change; Andrew Yang, could make noise; Sen. Michael Bennett of Colorado, highly respected among insiders; John Hickenlooper, in a very narrow lane; Kirsten Gillibrand, not exactly catching fire.
7. Cory Booker: Surprisingly quiet, building an organization, but not getting much traction.
6. Amy Klobuchar: She’s weathered the storm over allegedly harsh treatment of her staff, and brings Midwestern pragmatism to the race. Klobuchar needs a strong showing in the Iowa caucuses, which could improve her vice presidential prospects.
5. Elizabeth Warren: Perhaps written off too soon, Warren still has a chance despite her cringe-inducing explanations of whether she is partly Native American. Her fiery populist speeches have inspired a loyal fan base, but most Democrats we talk with think Donald Trump could beat her handily.
4. Bernie Sanders: Party insiders can’t stand him, and they can be counted on to leak and whisper about Sanders’ flaws, including alleged sexual misconduct among his 2016 campaign staffers. But Sanders has tremendously loyal supporters and is a fundraising phenomenon. It’s way too early to count him out.
3. Beto O’Rourke: He’s difficult to handicap, but for Democrats who want charisma and pizzazz, the former Texas congressman offers something different. We’re not positive that he will run, but he’s not in Iowa this month for the weather. Is O’Rourke a moderate or a progressive? No one is sure. Our guess is that he’ll flame out by fall.
2. Kamala Harris: She’s in a perfect spot — not the front-runner, but comfortably in the top tier. She’s hungry, she has plenty of money, and she’s the favorite to win the early California primary next year. Harris has a decent chance to land on the ticket, either as the nominee or, more likely, the running mate.
1. Joe Biden: He’s becoming the clear favorite to win the nomination. We expect Biden to announce by the end of the month with a carefully scripted roll-out that emphasizes his appeal to blue collar workers and the likelihood that he can beat Trump in states like Pennsylvania. Is Biden rusty? Yes. Does he have any new ideas? Probably not. Is he windy? Definitely. There’s no such thing as a perfect candidate — but Biden, a fit and trim 76, appears to be good enough for Democrats who simply want to oust Trump.
BOTTOM LINE: If you believe the Las Vegas oddsmakers, Trump is still the clear favorite in 2020. But his path to 270 electoral votes seems steeper than in 2016 — and besides, a month is a lifetime in politics, and his temperament will be tested in the upcoming month as Robert Mueller and other prosecutors step up the pace. Trump can run effectively against radical socialists, but that label doesn’t seem likely to stick with Uncle Joe Biden.
The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), Highstreet Asset Management Inc. (Highstreet), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Asset Management (Asia) Limited (AGF AM Asia) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA is a registered advisor in the U.S. AGFI and Highstreet are registered as portfolio managers across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. AGF AM Asia is registered as a portfolio manager in Singapore. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
© 2019 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
