Our Monthly Update: Elizabeth Warren’s Lead is Slipping
Author: Greg Valliere
October 21, 2019
WHILE WAITING FOR IMPEACHMENT, tonight’s Canadian election results, next week’s Fed meeting and — of course — the World Series, let’s take a look where the Democrats stand in our monthly update of the ever-changing nomination fight.
The field: Time to leave for Cory Booker, Kamala Harris, Beto O’Rourke, Andrew Yang, etc. They’ve had some memorable moments, but none of them is above 3% in national polls. And the train is about to leave the station for long-shot outsiders (although Hillary Clinton still has the itch). This race is about to crystallize — we’ll soon be down to the following five candidates:
5. Amy Klobuchar: A dark horse who continues to impress in debates as the adult in the room, she needs to finish in the top three in Iowa to have any chance of winning the nomination. An increasingly likely VP candidate.
4. Bernie Sanders: A brush with death, handled bravely, can boost a politician’s standing (see: Ronald Reagan in 1981). So Bernie is back, as fierce as ever. Before his heart attack, the Sanders campaign was stumbling, amid staff in-fighting. He’s an original — can’t rule him out, he’s got plenty of money — but is Sanders a plausible president? No, he’s a protest candidate.
3. Pete Buttigieg: He’s the insiders’ favorite, glib and likable. If voters decide, after a summer of infatuation with radicals, that a moderate is the answer, Biden obviously would benefit. But if Biden stumbles, here’s Mayor Pete, suddenly a serious player (with plenty of money). He’ll have to finish in the top three — or top two — in Iowa.
2. Elizabeth Warren: After touting her chances for months, her flaws are becoming apparent: an impossibly expensive and radical agenda, and an elitism that borders on hectoring. Her support among African Americans is minimal, and fundraisers are uneasy over her wealth tax. Like many front-runners, Warren may have peaked too early; the winner in Iowa will peak in late January.
1. Joe Biden: He hasn’t raised much money, he seemed to allow his son to profit from the family name, and he’s no prize in debates. But we sense that Democrats are having a reality check — voters know that Biden has a path to 270 electoral votes. (A Klobuchar-Buttigieg ticket might have a path also, but first they have to get nominated.)
A serious gaffe could derail Biden’s candidacy in one day, but Biden is keeping a low profile, hoping his ties to Barack Obama will maintain good will from mainstream Democrats — and the party’s establishment. Yes, he has lost a step or two, but it’s way too early to write off Uncle Joe.
INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS: If Warren really is stalling, that would be a great relief for the financial services industry, which can live with Biden. One thing is certain in this wild race: for the Democrats, it’s a nomination very much worth winning, since Donald Trump is in free-fall, losing support among Republicans who — finally — are saying enough is enough.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2021 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.