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Our Monthly Update — Joe Biden Still Leads for Democrats' Nomination

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Insights and Market Perspectives

Our Monthly Update — Joe Biden Still Leads for Democrats' Nomination

Author: Greg Valliere

January 23, 2020

GETTING NASTY IN IOWA: The caucuses are less than two weeks away, the candidates are attacking each other, but the name of the game hasn’t changed — catch Joe Biden, the persistent front-runner. Our monthly handicapping is now down to six candidates and the dwindling also-rans:

7. The field: Andrew Yang has some support in Iowa, Tulsi Gabbard could finish in the top five in New Hampshire, but they’re essentially running for 2024. Tom Steyer is wasting his time and money. Is a dark horse, like Colorado Sen. Michael Bennett, lurking? We don’t think so.

6. Amy Klobuchar: She could surprise in Iowa, winning close to 10% of the vote, but where does she go from there? Her increasingly solid performance in the debates will keep Klobuchar in the vice presidential mix.

5. Pete Buttigieg: With plenty of money and a solid core of supporters, the articulate South Bend mayor may stay in the race well into spring. He needs an upset victory in Iowa or New Hampshire, not out of the question but unlikely; his meteoric rise has leveled off.

4. Elizabeth Warren: She hit the proverbial wall during the autumn and has not regained her footing. But we’ll go out on a limb and predict a strong showing for Warren, especially among women, in Iowa.

3. Mike Bloomberg: As of now, we have him in third place but his national polling numbers are inching higher. Bloomberg was the trendy pick earlier this month, but an intense stretch of vetting looms on his finances, his personal life, his stance on issues like guns, etc. Two key unknowns: Can two or three billion dollars buy the presidency, and would the party’s left wing bolt in November rather than vote for a Wall Street billionaire?

2. Bernie Sanders: The party’s establishment may hate him, as we wrote yesterday, but Sanders is in second place in Iowa (and in national polls of Democrats) and he leads narrowly in New Hampshire. Like Donald Trump, Sanders generates passion among his supporters; they love his feisty socialist agenda, so Bernie could be in this race for months to come.

1. Joe Biden: It’s been the same story for months — the pundits (including us) have proclaimed that he’s lost a step, but voters don’t agree or care. They see a good guy who’s fairly moderate and has a chance to beat Trump in key electoral states. Biden is ahead by about four points in Iowa and maintains a solid lead nationally.

TWO NEW FACTORS: The retail phase of this race will end in a few weeks; the tactics will focus on millions of voters ahead of Super Tuesday on March 3. Second, Iowa and New Hampshire are mostly white, and the focus is about to shift to minorities, where Biden has strong support.

SO THE RACE STILL LOOKS LIKE BIDEN’S TO LOSE: Bloomberg is spending at a breathtaking pace, and Biden could stumble — but he hasn’t yet. Uncle Joe may have a winning formula: he’s the anti-Trump, non-threatening, pragmatic, likable and a little boring. Maybe that’s what voters are looking for.


The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.

About AGF Management Limited

Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.

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©2022 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

Written by

Greg Valliere

Greg Valliere

Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

AGF Investments

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