Potholes Ahead for Schumer-Manchin Deal; Bill Russell, RIP
Author: Greg Valliere
August 1, 2022
LONGER-TERM, the measure faces heated opposition during August because it contains higher taxes. Republicans and the Wall Street Journal editorial page are hammering away at a 15% minimum tax on corporations that make more than $1 billion — because, they say, some of these taxes will trickle down to the middle class.
THERE ARE OTHER PARTS OF THE BILL that are still unresolved, including expedited permitting for fossil fuels and renewables, and there will be a fierce debate over eliminating some depreciation tax breaks for highly profitable corporations.
THE HEALTH CARE PROVISIONS are likely to prevail either in this bill or a stand-alone measure. There’s widespread support for negotiating drug prices and extending Obamacare benefits.
THE SENATE IS SCHEDULED to leave town at the end of this week, probably not enough time to iron out all of the issues. (The the congressional parliamentarian will
first have to rule on whether the provisions can advance under the budget reconciliation process, and there would be a time-consuming consideration of dozens of amendments.)
THE HOUSE HAS LEFT TOWN, and has tentatively planned to return in the second week of August to vote on the bill — assuming the Senate finishes by then. Passage in the full House is a close call but members who are disappointed that there’s nothing in the measure to address the state and local tax have indicated they will support the bill.
WE ASSERTED LAST WEEK that chances of the bill becoming law are about 55% — and that generated some emails that we are way too low. But we’ll stick with 55% because there are simply too many controversial provisions for this to sail through Congress. As the debate drags on, the bolder its critics will become.
THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THIS EVENTUALLY WILL PASS has persuaded Inside the Beltway commentators to conclude that Joe Biden is enjoying a comeback. Perhaps — Senate elections on Nov. 8 could be a pleasant surprise for the Democrats. But it still appears that the House will flip back to the GOP, probably by 15 to 20 seats.
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BILL RUSSELL, RIP: An icon, a giant — the greatest winner in sports history, Mr. Russell revolutionized the game of basketball. He won 11 NBA Championships, eight in a row, two NCAA titles, and an Olympic gold medal. He played in 21 seventh games, or winner-take-all games, and his record was an astonishing 21-0.
MR. RUSSELL was cerebral on the court, which he dominated with his defensive play, and he was fearless in his advocacy of civil rights. There’s been no one like him, and for a kid growing up in New England in the 1960s, championships were to be expected — because Bill Russell always won.
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