
Potholes Ahead for Schumer-Manchin Deal; Bill Russell, RIP
Author: Greg Valliere
August 1, 2022
LONGER-TERM, the measure faces heated opposition during August because it contains higher taxes. Republicans and the Wall Street Journal editorial page are hammering away at a 15% minimum tax on corporations that make more than $1 billion — because, they say, some of these taxes will trickle down to the middle class.
THERE ARE OTHER PARTS OF THE BILL that are still unresolved, including expedited permitting for fossil fuels and renewables, and there will be a fierce debate over eliminating some depreciation tax breaks for highly profitable corporations.
THE HEALTH CARE PROVISIONS are likely to prevail either in this bill or a stand-alone measure. There’s widespread support for negotiating drug prices and extending Obamacare benefits.
THE SENATE IS SCHEDULED to leave town at the end of this week, probably not enough time to iron out all of the issues. (The the congressional parliamentarian will
first have to rule on whether the provisions can advance under the budget reconciliation process, and there would be a time-consuming consideration of dozens of amendments.)
THE HOUSE HAS LEFT TOWN, and has tentatively planned to return in the second week of August to vote on the bill — assuming the Senate finishes by then. Passage in the full House is a close call but members who are disappointed that there’s nothing in the measure to address the state and local tax have indicated they will support the bill.
WE ASSERTED LAST WEEK that chances of the bill becoming law are about 55% — and that generated some emails that we are way too low. But we’ll stick with 55% because there are simply too many controversial provisions for this to sail through Congress. As the debate drags on, the bolder its critics will become.
THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THIS EVENTUALLY WILL PASS has persuaded Inside the Beltway commentators to conclude that Joe Biden is enjoying a comeback. Perhaps — Senate elections on Nov. 8 could be a pleasant surprise for the Democrats. But it still appears that the House will flip back to the GOP, probably by 15 to 20 seats.
* * * * *
BILL RUSSELL, RIP: An icon, a giant — the greatest winner in sports history, Mr. Russell revolutionized the game of basketball. He won 11 NBA Championships, eight in a row, two NCAA titles, and an Olympic gold medal. He played in 21 seventh games, or winner-take-all games, and his record was an astonishing 21-0.
MR. RUSSELL was cerebral on the court, which he dominated with his defensive play, and he was fearless in his advocacy of civil rights. There’s been no one like him, and for a kid growing up in New England in the 1960s, championships were to be expected — because Bill Russell always won.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2023 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.