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Republican Finally Split With Trump; Are There Impeachment Implications?

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Republican Finally Split With Trump; Are There Impeachment Implications?

Author: Greg Valliere

October 8, 2019

FINALLY — SOME BIPARTISAN UNITY: It’s impossible to over-state the reaction in Washington yesterday to President Trump’s abandonment of the Kurds, an impulsive decision that violated two cardinal rules in this city.

FIRST, TRUMP BLINDSIDED VIRTUALLY EVERYONE: His advisers, Congress, and the Defense Department were caught off-guard. Trump is an isolationist who believes it’s time for U.S. troops to come home, an admirable goal, but it’s unclear whether he consulted with anyone, and veteran Republicans were stunned.

SECOND, THE DECISION APPALLED BOTH PARTIES (see this morning’s Wall Street Journal editorial) because of the signal this sends to U.S. adversaries, who already got the message that Trump has no desire to confront Iran. This is a green light to the butcher Bashar Assad and Turkish President Erdogan.

THEN SOMETHING INTRIGUING HAPPENED: Republicans spoke out, harshly, against the president. It wasn’t just the outrage from Lindsey Graham, Marco Rubio, Mitt Romney, etc. It was widespread, and the most significant criticism came from Nikki Haley, the highly regarded former United Nations ambassador. Haley, 47, is widely considered a frontrunner for the 2024 GOP nomination, and her willingness to alienate Trump’s hard-core base spoke volumes.

COULD THIS IMPACT IMPEACHMENT? The Senate is widely assumed to lack enough Republicans to convict Trump after a trial, but that’s not a certain assumption. Assuming all Democrats vote to convict, there would have to be 20 defectors from the 53 Republicans — a tall order, but not an impossible task if Trump continues to blindside his allies.

AS OF NOW, we think there could be four or five GOP defectors, but fresh disclosures will be pivotal. The key, obviously, is Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, the pro-Trump sycophant who has a re-election fight of his own in Kentucky. Notably, McConnell ripped into Trump yesterday for his abandonment of the Kurds.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR: Will Trump mount a tweet-storm against the Republicans who oppose his decision? He held his fire yesterday, but could he hit back at the GOP and engage in an all-out fight with his own party? Trump’s base outside the Beltway still loves him, but there’s Trump fatigue among Republicans on Capitol Hill. “Pence wouldn’t be this erratic,” a senior GOP staffer told us last night.


The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), Highstreet Asset Management Inc. (Highstreet), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Asset Management (Asia) Limited (AGF AM Asia) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA is a registered advisor in the U.S. AGFI and Highstreet are registered as portfolio managers across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. AGF AM Asia is registered as a portfolio manager in Singapore. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.

About AGF Management Limited

Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.

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© 2019 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

Written by

Greg Valliere

Greg Valliere

Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

AGF Investments

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