Some Very Good News — a “Geopolitical Earthquake” in the Mideast
Author: Greg Valliere
August 14, 2020
A GENUINE BREAKTHROUGH: We strongly urge you to read Tom Friedman’s column in this morning’s New York Times. A three-time Pulitzer Prize winner, Friedman appreciates all the corruption and treachery in the Mideast, but he concludes that yesterday’s deal between Israel and the United Arab Emirates is a “geopolitical earthquake” with major implications for the region.
REMARKABLY, ISRAEL HAS WON a truce with the UAE — and, in all likelihood, other Persian Gulf kingdoms, including Saudi Arabia.
THE KEY, FRIEDMAN REPORTS, was an agreement by Benjamin Netanyahu to refrain from annexing territory in the West Bank. Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas, stripped of key UAE allies, feels betrayed — but he should return to the bargaining table, Friedman writes.
THE LOSERS IN THIS DEAL, quite clearly, are the Iranian ayatollahs, whose use of surrogates in the Mideast will encounter even more aggressive retaliation — led
by the Israelis. Their recent cyberwarfare and pin-point air attacks have crippled
Iranian nuclear facilities.
THIS IS A VICTORY for President Trump and the much-maligned Jared Kushner, who relentlessly pushed for a deal, urging Israel not to annex in the West Bank.
Paraphrasing Trump, Friedman writes that this is a HUGE breakthrough, and we agree.
* * * * *
WASHINGTON IS CLEARING OUT, as lawmakers flee this steamy city without passing a stimulus bill. We still think there will be more aid for millions of Americans who have been staggered by the virus, but that deal doesn’t appear to be imminent.
THE DEMOCRATS RISK OVERPLAYING THEIR HAND, but much of the focus is on Trump’s astonishing assertion that he could block a stimulus bill because he wants to deny needed funds for the Post Office. Trump is determined to slime the concept of mail-in balloting; we reiterate our conclusion yesterday — there’s a growing chance of a disputed election.
WE STILL THINK TRUMP NEEDS A STIMULUS DEAL, because without one, the economy could slump this fall, just ahead of the election. We also think Nancy Pelosi needs a deal; without one, she could look too calculating as people suffer. But neither she nor Steve Mnuchin are close to agreement.
* * * * *
THE DOG DAYS OF AUGUST ARE UPON US, so we’ll maintain our tradition of not publishing every day in the second half of this month. We’ll write sporadically between now and Labor Day, when the campaign will heat up dramatically.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2022 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
