The Bob Woodward Bombshells — Not Just About Covid
Author: Greg Valliere
September 10, 2020
WE TALKED WITH INSIDERS in both parties yesterday who all agreed on one point: what was Donald Trump thinking, talking 18 times — on tape — with Bob Woodward? Was Trump so hubristic that he thought he could charm and spin the legendary muckraker?
THERE’S ALSO AGREEMENT IN WASHINGTON that this is very damaging to Trump. Democrats think his extraordinary revelations will further diminish the public’s view of his handling of the virus. Most Republicans were silent — in public — while expressing disbelief in private over Trump’s statements to Woodward.
WE USUALLY CONSIDER TELL-ALL BOOKS a minor blip in campaigns; the impact usually fades quickly and doesn’t affect many votes. But with Trump on tape, this may be different, on at least three fronts:
FIRST, TRUMP’S ESTRANGEMENT FROM THE MILITARY is now a major problem for him. “My f—–g generals are a bunch of pu—-s” he said, and the entire Washington defense establishment is now openly rooting for military parent Joe Biden. Rank-and-file troops still like Trump, but not as much as in 2016.
SECOND, OTHER ASPECTS OF THE BOOK will hurt Trump, including his mocking of Woodward’s concern about race relations, and the stunning critiques of his presidency from many who have worked with him. The most remarkable is the assertion from former National Security Council Director Dan Coats, who thinks Vladimir Putin “has something” on Trump.
THIRD, THIS STORY will dominate the news cycle through the Sunday morning talk shows and Woodward’s appearance Sunday night on “60 Minutes.” A five-day news cycle means Trump will have difficulty getting any message out; we subscribe to the theory that winning each day is important between now and the election — and Trump will be off-message for nearly a week.
BOTTOM LINE: One of our favorite indicators is the latest betting odds, which narrowed in early September but have widened a bit — in Biden’s favor — in recent days. The polls have been inconsistent; one day Pennsylvania looks close, the next day Biden seemingly has a decent lead there. There’s no change in our view that he’s the narrow front-runner.
WE’LL STICK WITH THIS CONCLUSION: If Trump comes back and wins, the economy will be a key factor. If Trump loses, the main reason will be his handling of the virus — and now it’s clear that he lied to the public about the severity of the pandemic. It’s on tape, it’s not fake news.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2021 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
