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The China Bombshell — Reading Trump’s Mind

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Insights and Market Perspectives

The China Bombshell — Reading Trump’s Mind

Author: Greg Valliere

May 6, 2019

Our take on what Donald Trump is thinking this morning . . .

THE TALKS WERE BREAKING DOWN: I heard from Lighthizer last week that the Chinese were stonewalling on structural reforms. I had to send a message — no weak deal!

OUR ECONOMY CAN WITHSTAND THIS: Friday’s unemployment report convinced me we could crack down on China without a major economic impact in the U.S. What better time to take a risk — our economy is surging!

THE TRADE HAWKS WERE WILLING TO POUNCE: Lighthizer and Navarro weren’t happy with the negotiations, and they would have leaked to the press if we got a weak deal. The hard liners will love my new tariffs!

I HAVE POLITICAL SUPPORT ON THIS: Even Schumer supported my higher tariffs; only the Chamber of Commerce Republicans — a bunch of wimps — want to avoid a showdown. No time to go wobbly!

MY BASE WILL LOVE THIS: Sleepy Joe Biden thinks China isn’t a threat, but no one plays hardball like me on issues like trade — this helps me in Pennsylvania and Michigan!

WE’LL GET A DEAL: Didn’t the Chinese read “The Art of the Deal?” They should know how unpredictability works, just ask Kim Jong-un. I think there’s still a chance of an agreement in principle within a couple of weeks — if not, we’re prepared to wait!

THIS WILL HURT CHINA MORE THAN US: Their economy will take a major hit — our economy is surging. They need to save face? Maybe, but give them a few weeks and they’ll cry uncle!

THE MARKETS ARE UPSET, but we’re still close to record highs and if my new tariffs send investors to the safe haven of Treasuries, lowering interest rates — well, that’s my big goal. If the Fed won’t cut rates, maybe my tariffs will lower rates!

LET’S STIR THE POT: I survived Mueller, and the economy is great — now it’s time to focus on foreign policy. Watch out, China, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela — even Russia. No more Mister Nice Guy!

COULD THIS FAIL? Like I said, we’ll eventually get a deal — and no one can spin a deal like me; I can boast that my tariffs got us a much better deal. My critics always underestimate me but I get results!


The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.

About AGF Management Limited

Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.

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©2021 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

Written by

Greg Valliere

Greg Valliere

Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

AGF Investments

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