The Democrats Get Cocky
Author: Greg Valliere
July 13, 2020
HUBRIS, A DEADLY FLAW: Giddy over new polls — and the repeated mis-steps by Donald Trump — Democrats have suddenly gotten cocky. They’re talking about a potential landslide, and may pour resources into states like Texas, a high risk/low
FOUR YEARS AGO, Hillary Clinton decided that her victory was so likely that it made sense to mount a challenge in states like Georgia, which she lost — while ignoring Wisconsin, where she never appeared — and also lost. One would assume that a lesson was learned.
YET HERE’S JONATHAN MARTIN, reporting in yesterday’s New York Times that the Democrats are intoxicated by the prospect of a sweeping victory that could give them a solid Senate majority and a mandate for their progressive agenda. That kind of hubris often backfires.
DEMOCRATS APPARENTLY ARE URGING BIDEN to expand the map and compete for Texas, Ohio, Georgia, Montana, etc. Democrats’ fundraising has been impressive, and suddenly they think they can comfortably take the Senate by contesting states like Georgia, which often look enticing in July but not in November. They’re also upbeat over their prospects for redistricting after this year’s census.
THE DEMOCRATS ARE CORRECT that Trump consistently mis-steps. Polls show that by 2-to-1, the public disapproves of his handling of the pandemic. He probably will mis-handle the opening of schools. He has muzzled Dr. Anthony Fauci, even to the point of sending negative talking points on Fauci to the press.
AND TRUMP MAY HAVE MORE “get out of jail” cards to play for convicted felons — which will hurt him with moderate voters, who will agree with Mitt Romney that the Roger Stone commutation showed “historic, unprecedented corruption.” Trump’s base was happy, but he cannot win re-election with only his base.
IF THE ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY, Biden would win enough states to win more than 300 electoral votes (270 are needed) and Democrats would re-capture the Senate. But the election is on Nov. 3 — so there’s plenty of time for Trump to bash Joe Biden’s mental acuity and his embrace of a left-wing agenda.
THE AGENDA COULD BECOME AN ALBATROSS FOR BIDEN: Bernie Sanders essentially has signed off on an expensive agenda that would greatly expand the role of government. There’s so much news right now that Biden’s acceptance of that agenda attracted relatively little publicity last week.
BIDEN AGREES WITH SANDERS on sweeping climate change provisions, but the former vice president is more moderate on several other issues, rejecting Medicare for All (Biden favors expending Obamacare), student loans (no free college for everyone), and tax hikes (Biden’s top rates would only revert to pre-Trump levels). But Biden’s laundry list would cost trillions of dollars and is ripe for a Trump assault.
BOTTOM LINE: The financial markets, which lately haven’t worried about anything,
may think that this race is far from over, sure to tighten this fall. And that could
be correct. It won’t be the sweeping victory that many Democrats anticipate — and
their cocky anticipation of a landslide may look foolish by late October.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Asset Management (Asia) Limited (AGF AM Asia) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA is a registered advisor in the U.S. AGFI is registered as a portfolio managers across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. AGF AM Asia is registered as a portfolio manager in Singapore. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
© 2020 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.