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The End is Near

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The End is Near

Author: Greg Valliere

January 31, 2020

JUST A QUESTION OF WHEN: The acquittal of Donald J. Trump, which has been likely for months, could come as early as today or as late as Monday. In the final analysis, this was a political exercise; the evidence mattered little.

REGULAR READERS KNOW that we didn’t spend much time on the trial, because it had no impact on the markets, zero. External shocks like a Chinese virus or a tariff war can affect the markets, but the outcome of this trial was never in doubt.

THE POST-MORTEM WILL BE PREDICTABLE: Democrats will howl that the trial was a sham; Republicans will call it a waste of time, a political hit job. Everything now is aimed at influencing opinion ahead of the November election.

THUS TRUMP’S REACTION TO ACQUITTAL WILL BE SIGNIFICANT: If he gloats and continues to threaten Democrats like Adam Schiff, it will delight his base but alienate moderates. A post-acquittal pledge to get back to work on issues like infrastructure, health care, immigration, etc. would be more effective politically.

BUT AS WE’LL SEE NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT, none of the items in Trump’s State of the Union address will have any likelihood of enactment. His next big push will be for a huge new tax cut, which has no chance in the sullen House.

AS USUAL, TUESDAY NIGHT and beyond will be all about Trump. Many hate him, many love him, but there’s agreement on one theme — Washington is broken. He’s the president, presiding over a dysfunctional city that doesn’t address people’s needs — which is why Trump’s re-election is far from certain.

BECAUSE HE’S SO INCREDIBLY TALENTED at demonizing his opponents, Trump is the favorite to win re-election. The economy, which may slide below 2% growth this quarter, may not help Trump as much as he hopes, so get ready for more Fed bashing.

FOR NOW, WE’LL SIMPLY CELEBRATE the end of this pathetic trial and this long miserable month of January, which also ends today. Was this farce a victory for Donald Trump? A Pyrrhic victory, one suspects.


The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.

About AGF Management Limited

Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.

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©2023 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

Written by

Greg Valliere

Greg Valliere

Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

AGF Investments

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