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The Great Migration — America Heads South

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The Great Migration — America Heads South

Author: Greg Valliere

March 7, 2019

LET’S CHANGE THE SUBJECT: With the Democrats bogged down, incredibly, over anti-Semitism and Republicans defecting in droves against President Trump’s declaration of a national emergency, this might be a good time to focus on a different theme: the increasing migration of Americans from the Northeast to the South.

IT’S ALMOST TOO EASY to pick on the Northeast, with its high taxes and crumbling infrastructure and frigid winters, but the numbers don’t lie — the Northeast has lost at least 200,000 residents per year for the past three years, according to data released late last year by the Census Bureau. In the most recent year’s data, a staggering 352,000 residents left the Northeast in 2017-18.

THE GREATEST MIGRATION HAS BEEN OUT OF NEW YORK: Some of this is a move by young couples out of New York City, but the entire Tri-State region has suffered from a migration to the South, with New Jersey losing 57,000 residents in a one-year period ending last summer. Connecticut, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania also have experienced significant out-migration. Only New Hampshire — which has neither a sales tax nor an income tax — has enjoyed an uptick.

WHERE ARE THEY GOING? According to Census data, of the nearly 600,000 people who have left the Northeast in the past three years, about two-thirds have migrated to the South. Not surprisingly, Florida — which has no income tax — has enjoyed the largest surge. Other areas of the South — Charlotte, Nashville, etc. — are booming.

WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS? There are two obvious ones: first, this is hardly good news for real estate in much of the Northeast; second, this trend will have a significant political impact as electoral vote totals change and House redistricting occurs after the 2020 census.

BASED ON TRENDS from the first two-thirds of this decade, demographers think Texas may gain three electoral votes, giving the state 42 votes, with Florida gaining two, giving it 31 votes. Several states may lose an electoral vote, including New York, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan and even Rhode Island.

WITH MORE HOUSE DISTRICTS AND ELECTORAL VOTES, would the South look even more favorable for conservatives? Probably, but that’s not an easy call because these states have increasing percentages of Hispanic voters, many of whom are alienated from the Trump Administration. The more likely political scenario is a loss of clout for the Northeast, which generally supports more liberal candidates.

WHAT PROMPTED US TO WRITE ABOUT THIS? News this morning that New Jersey’s governor is proposing a “millionaire’s tax,” as states in the Northeast scramble for new sources of revenues — including “user fees” on just about everything — to pay for new spending. Policies have consequences; people vote with their feet, or moving vans.


The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.

About AGF Management Limited

Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.

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©2023 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.

Written by

Greg Valliere

Greg Valliere

Chief U.S. Policy Strategist

AGF Investments

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