The Great Migration — America Heads South
Author: Greg Valliere
March 7, 2019
LET’S CHANGE THE SUBJECT: With the Democrats
bogged down, incredibly, over anti-Semitism and Republicans defecting in droves
against President Trump’s declaration of a national emergency, this might be a
good time to focus on a different theme: the increasing migration of Americans
from the Northeast to the South.
IT’S ALMOST TOO EASY
to pick on the Northeast, with its high taxes and crumbling infrastructure and
frigid winters, but the numbers don’t lie — the Northeast has lost at least
200,000 residents per year for the past three years, according to data released
late last year by the Census Bureau. In
the most recent year’s data, a staggering 352,000 residents left the Northeast
in 2017-18.
THE GREATEST MIGRATION
HAS BEEN OUT OF NEW YORK: Some of this is a move by young
couples out of New York City, but the entire Tri-State region has suffered from
a migration to the South, with New Jersey losing 57,000 residents in a one-year
period ending last summer. Connecticut, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania also
have experienced significant out-migration. Only New Hampshire — which
has neither a sales tax nor an income tax — has enjoyed an uptick.
WHERE ARE THEY GOING? According
to Census data, of the nearly 600,000 people who have left the Northeast in
the past three years, about two-thirds have migrated to the South. Not
surprisingly, Florida — which has no income tax — has enjoyed the
largest surge. Other areas of the South — Charlotte, Nashville, etc. — are
booming.
WHAT ARE THE
IMPLICATIONS? There are two obvious ones: first, this is hardly
good news for real estate in much of the Northeast; second, this trend
will have a significant political impact as electoral vote totals change and
House redistricting occurs after the 2020 census.
BASED ON TRENDS from
the first two-thirds of this decade, demographers think Texas may gain three
electoral votes, giving the state 42 votes, with Florida gaining two,
giving it 31 votes. Several states may lose an electoral vote, including New
York, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan and even Rhode Island.
WITH MORE HOUSE
DISTRICTS AND ELECTORAL VOTES, would the South look even more
favorable for conservatives? Probably, but that’s not an easy call because
these states have increasing percentages of Hispanic voters, many of
whom are alienated from the Trump Administration. The more likely political scenario
is a loss of clout for the Northeast, which generally supports more liberal
candidates.
WHAT PROMPTED US TO
WRITE ABOUT THIS? News this morning that New Jersey’s governor
is proposing a “millionaire’s tax,” as states in the Northeast
scramble for new sources of revenues — including “user fees” on just
about everything — to pay for new spending. Policies have consequences;
people vote with their feet, or moving vans.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), Highstreet Asset Management Inc. (Highstreet), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Asset Management (Asia) Limited (AGF AM Asia) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA is a registered advisor in the U.S. AGFI and Highstreet are registered as portfolio managers across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. AGF AM Asia is registered as a portfolio manager in Singapore. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
© 2019 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
