The Mexican Tariff Cliffhanger; Joe Biden’s Very Bad Week
Author: Greg Valliere
June 6, 2019
CAN TRUMP TAKE YES FOR AN ANSWER ON MEXICAN TARIFFS? Donald Trump is the reality show master, always eager to let suspense build ahead of a key decision. So we’re in for several more days of guessing whether he will impose trade tariffs on Mexico on June 10.
THE MOOD IN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING is that a delay is possible as both sides continue negotiations; the Mexicans are showing a willingness to crack down on the stream of Central American immigrants flowing through their country, and Republican critics of the tariffs are hoping to avoid an ugly fight over the tariffs that would pit them against their constituents, who support Trump unconditionally.
EVEN TRUMP’S HARD-LINE TRADE HAWK, Peter Navarro, said yesterday that the U.S. has obviously gotten Mexico’s attention, and that an agreement could be reached that avoids new tariffs. So there’s room for Trump to spin Mexican concessions as a victory, but he’s reportedly furious over the surge of illegal immigrants in May; 140,000 were arrested, the highest monthly total in seven years.
ONE OF MANY REASONS WHY TRUMP IS SO DIFFICULT TO ANALYZE is that there’s often no clear end-game. He can’t possibly think that the flood of immigrants will be reduced to zero in one month, so what’s his objective? A sharp reduction? We’ll be glued to the Sunday talk shows, because the outcome won’t be clear until Monday — if then.
* * * * *
JOE BIDEN, IN TROUBLE ALREADY: He’s the Democrats’ clear frontrunner; he leads Trump narrowly in a new Texas poll and is comfortably ahead in the crucial state of Michigan — but the former vice president has had a very bad week.
PLAGIARISM DEJA VU: Biden’s 1988 campaign imploded after it became clear that he lifted whole portions of a speech by a British politician, and never cited the source. One would think that his 2020 campaign would be extremely vigilant to avoid any fresh allegations of plagiarism, yet The Washington Post and others found nearly verbatim portions of his health care proposal were lifted from other candidates’ platforms. The Biden team immediately corrected this, but . . .
A MORE SERIOUS ISSUE FOR ACTIVISTS is Biden’s refusal to call for the abolition of the Hyde Amendment, which curtails federal funding for abortion for mostly poor women. Advocating the amendment’s abolition is virtually mandatory in the party, and is part of the Democrats’ platform. Unless he adroitly pivots on the issue, Biden will be bogged down by abortion through the primaries.
AND TO CAP OFF THIS DISASTROUS WEEK, Biden joked at a recent meeting about his reputation for caressing women, and then made comments about a pretty ten year old girl in his audience that could be interpreted as harmless — or creepy. He then rubbed her shoulders.
PARTY LEADERS HAS BEEN ASTONISHED by Biden’s surge in the polls; they know that if he can win Michigan and Pennsylvania, he’s got a shot at ousting Trump. But this week’s developments — especially the abortion issue — are a warning signal that he’s not in touch with younger voters, that he’s still in the 1980s. He’s a very shaky frontrunner, just a gaffe away from a free-fall.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), Highstreet Asset Management Inc. (Highstreet), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Asset Management (Asia) Limited (AGF AM Asia) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA is a registered advisor in the U.S. AGFI and Highstreet are registered as portfolio managers across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. AGF AM Asia is registered as a portfolio manager in Singapore. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
© 2020 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.