The Republicans Have a Problem: Public Opinion Has Shifted on the Impeachment Trial
Author: Greg Valliere
January 29, 2020
TWO MISCALCULATIONS: Democrats believed last fall that the public would support the impeachment, conviction and ouster of Donald Trump. But the public barely budged on that radical option; opinion is still roughly divided. But the Republicans have miscalculated on public opinion as well, and now they’re squirming.
THE IDEA OF HOLDING THIS TRIAL without witnesses has been overwhelmingly rejected by the public; 75 percent of respondents in a recent poll said there should be witnesses. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell doesn’t want witnesses because he knows that would ruin his goal of a speedy end of the trial, perhaps within a week.
HIGH DRAMA: Will McConnell have the votes by Friday to block witnesses? This would require four Republican defectors (assuming no Democrats defect, which is far from certain). There are three likely GOP defectors — Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, and Mitt Romney; the latter surely must believe that revenge is a dish best served cold.
WHEN WILL THIS END? If there isn’t a fourth defector — perhaps Lamar Alexander or Cory Gardner — the trial could be over by next week. If there’s a fourth defector,
Bolton could provide sensational testimony, and the smearing of “Book Deal John” as a backstabbing agent of the deep state would make the Republican far right look even more extreme.
AS WE WROTE LAST WEEK, the issue isn’t whether Trump will be removed from office; he almost certainly will win acquittal because GOP senators don’t think the president’s obvious wrongdoing in Ukraine rises to the level of high crimes and misdemeanors.
THE ISSUE NOW is the residual damage inflicted on Trump and the GOP. The public increasingly senses a sham trial, and the Bolton book tour won’t be pretty for the White House. Trump reportedly is planning a prime time made-for-TV celebration of his acquittal, which would thrill his base but further alienate moderate voters.
THIS ISN’T ENOUGH FOR US TO CONCLUDE that Trump is now the underdog in November. As long as the economy stays strong, he will be the narrow favorite.
BUT REPUBLICAN RETENTION OF SENATE CONTROL is looking a little less likely — and that’s why McConnell is squirming this morning; the Senate, after all, is the firewall that blocks radical legislation from the House.
WITH ONLY A 53-47 majority and some vulnerable GOP moderates, McConnell surely appreciates the stakes on Friday as he grapples with a shift in public opinion and two unpalatable options: no witnesses and a public blowback, or witnesses and a circus for weeks to come.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
©2021 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
