The Whispering Grows Louder in Both Parties — Are There Alternatives to Trump and Biden?
Author: Greg Valliere
August 6, 2019
AN AGE-OLD PROBLEM: After the carnage in El Paso and Dayton, Donald Trump, 73, offered condolences yesterday to the people of Toledo. The night before, Joe Biden, 76, offered condolences to the people of Houston and Michigan.
WE’RE NOT GETTING ANY YOUNGER, but we’re not running for president, and we have to ask: are both Trump and Biden losing some altitude? Insiders in both parties are concerned about the diminished cognitive skills of both men — and the whispering is growing louder about late entrants into the presidential contest.
FIRST, THE REPUBLICANS: The party will stay slavishly loyal to Trump — as long as he looks like a winner. The House is hopeless for the GOP (12 Republicans, seeing the handwriting on the wall, are leaving the House). What if the GOP’s 53-47 Senate majority suddenly looks vulnerable (it isn’t yet). What if polls show Trump would lose decisively in 2020? Could there be a late entrant?
MITT ROMNEY, FIT AND RAZOR-SHARP AT 72, has indicated no interest in running, but his disavowals haven’t exactly been Shermanesque (“if nominated I will not run, if elected I will not serve,” Gen. William Tecumseh Sherman proclaimed in 1884). Romney was the 2012 nominee and a plausible president, and the itch never subsides; we’re hearing that a “draft Romney” movement is taking shape among some GOP dissidents.
OTHER TRUMP CHALLENGERS could include former Ohio Gov. John Kasich and former Sen. Jeff Flake, but the party’s base would never accept them. The GOP’s next big star is former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who criticized Trump last weekend; she’s only 47 and seems willing to wait until 2024, when she would be a favorite to win the party’s nomination.
A STRONG CHALLENGER IN 2024 would be Mike Pence, also content to wait despite his private doubts about Trump. A huge 2024 field could include Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz — and it’s way too soon to conclude that Paul Ryan, 49, is finished with politics.
WE DOUBT that any major Republican would mount an expensive — and ultimately fruitless — challenge to Trump; there’s maybe a 20% chance of a late entrant if Trump’s immigrant tweets and trade wars become even more toxic.
WHAT ABOUT THE DEMOCRATS? Biden’s verbal gaffes have become common in the past few years, and he stumbled several times in his recent debate and still seems to be a very shaky front-runner (and it’s worth noting that he had surgery twice in 1988 to correct life-threatening brain aneurysms, which Trump alludes to frequently). Democrats we’ve talked with worry that there’s no obvious electable replacement if Biden stumbles; Elizabeth Warren has made huge progress but party insiders doubt she could win a general election.
FOUR VERY LONG SHOTS: We’re hearing reports that Hillary Clinton, 71, has not absolutely, positively ruled out a late entry. Same for John Kerry, 75. Same for Michael Bloomberg, 77. And then there’s the longest long shot of all — Michelle Obama, whose radiant personality has elevated her to superstar status among progressives. But she has never held office and has firmly ruled out running.
THERE’S STILL TIME: A late entrant could wait until October or November and still get on all the state primary ballots in 2020. Will it happen? We’ll stick with a 20% chance of a major Republican jumping in and perhaps a 25% chance a Democrat will take the plunge. Far-fetched, you say? Probably — but nothing is far-fetched any more in American politics.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), Highstreet Asset Management Inc. (Highstreet), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Asset Management (Asia) Limited (AGF AM Asia) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA is a registered advisor in the U.S. AGFI and Highstreet are registered as portfolio managers across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. AGF AM Asia is registered as a portfolio manager in Singapore. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.
About AGF Management Limited
Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF’s suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.
For further information, please visit AGF.com.
© 2020 AGF Management Limited. All rights reserved.
